Thursday : Decreasing clouds. High: 47
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 37
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 63
Friday Night: Cloudy with light rain. Low:25
Saturday: Increasing clouds. High: 40
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion:
As we begin the first day of meteorological winter, mid-Missouri looks to continue the roller coaster weather. Thursday, conditions look rather mild in comparison to Wednesday. Look for clouds to slowly decrease this afternoon to a mostly sunny sky. The abundant sunshine will help temperature return close to seasonal average with a high in the upper 40s. Overnight Thursday, clouds slowly start to build in keeping temperatures above normal in the upper 30s. The warmer nighttime temperatures combined with gusty surface winds will help daytime temperatures reach the mid 60s on Friday before another cold front heads our way this weekend.
Forecasters: Baker, Sallot, Thomas
Date Issued: 12/1/2022 10:00 AM CST
After the passage of a cold front on Tuesday Nov. 29, high pressure builds into the CWA. A longwave trough in the lower levels currently resides over the great plains and brings southerly flow to the CWA as it approaches. Return flow from the building high pressure system further encourages southerly flow in the CWA.
Zonal flow dominates the upper levels of the atmosphere, discouraging mixing between layers, despite the longwave trough in the lower levels and a strong low level jet at 850mb. This low level jet flows through the CWA for the entire forecast period, reaching maximum speeds of 50-65 knots on Friday around 15Z to 21Z.
Despite the zonal flow in the upper atmosphere, this strong southerly flow in the lower layers is expected to advect warm air into the CWA today and Friday, raising temperatures into the high 40s today and into the mid 60s on Friday. Windy conditions are expected Friday as the low level jet peaks overhead.
The upper level zonal flow will continue to push the longwave east, bringing a cold front through the CWA ahead of the trough. This front is expected to pass through the CWA on Friday night around Saturday at 03Z. Due to the little mixing between layers, only light rain may be associated with this frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to drop quickly overnight as lows dip into the 20s.
As the longwave passes and resides east of the CWA, cold air advection takes over in the CWA overnight from Friday into Saturday from Saturday 03Z to 12Z. This CAA will keep daytime temperatures in the low 40s on Saturday.
Both the GFS and the NAM were used to construct this forecast.
Sallot
No comments:
Post a Comment