Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 38
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High: 44
Tuesday Night: Showers. Low: 41
Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 52
Wednesday Night: Rain. Low: 49
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Discussion:
We'll be seeing some rain this week. There will be two chances for rain, one on Tuesday into Tuesday night, and another during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. When the sky isn't crying, clouds will still cover the sky until later this week.
-Cook
Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz
Date Issued: 12/05/2022 5:00 PM CDT
Both the NAM12 and GFS had a good grasp on the location of a low pressure system over the panhandle of Oklahoma. However, the GFS had a better grasp of the surface temperatures.The NBM was also consulted for cloud cover and temperature prediction.
The sub-tropical jet continues to stay over the Midwest as a trough builds over Nevada. This trough looks to move through the Midwest late this week. There are strong divergence signatures Wednesday and into early Thursday morning.
Vorticity signatures follow suit with the divergence aloft. However, there seems to be a line of of vorticity that stays over mid-Missouri for much of Tuesday. Wednesday evening looks to be the highest chance of precipitation.
At 700 MB, RH signatures stay low until Tuesday afternoon. The GFS disagrees with the NAM over Vertical Velocity. The NAM shows stronger vertical velocity signatures while the GFS shows weak signatures. However, both agree with moisture at this level.
At the 850 level, a high pressure system stays over the Gulf of Mexico which will bring moisture to mid-Missouri. This moisture will stay through the forecast period.
Dewpoints at the surface will rise Wednesday due to the High pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. RH levels show A weak surface level low pressure system will move through Tuesday that could bring in scattered showers. Model sounding show saturation Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. These look to be the best time for rain over our forecast period. GFS runs show trace amounts of rainfall Tuesday evening while runs show closer to half an inch Wednesday evening.
- Herion
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