Tuesday: Cloudy with trace amounts of rain. High: 45
Tuesday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 36
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds. High: 53
Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds and early-morning rain. Low: 42
Thursday: Rain. High: 55
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Discussion:
Be sure to pack an umbrella on Thursday as we are expecting around half of an inch of rain in the morning through the afternoon. Tuesday will also see some rain, but only trace amounts. Wednesday will be dry and mostly sunny, and high temperatures all week will be chilly but not too cold.
-Clark
Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker
Date Issued: 12/06/2022 9:00 AM CST
We chose to use the GFS for our forecast due to large variances between the NAM 00z and 06z runs, particularly with forecast precipitation accumulation. Both models were 3 or more degrees off of the high and low temperatures from the past 12 hours, which is likely due to leftover cloud cover from overnight Monday which kept our observed temperatures lower than numerical models forecast.
Tuesday we will see clouds build in from the west as increased values of 500 mb vorticity, 700 mb omega, and 700-850 mb saturation coincide. The saturation is broader and more complete in the lower levels however, so we will only see trace amounts of rain despite the associated areas of saturation and lift. Clouds will clear out by around Wednesday 09-12z. Overnight clouds will help to keep temperatures from reaching below freezing despite northerly winds.
Wednesday will be mostly clear with clouds building in from the southwest as the day progresses due to sparse 700-850 mb saturation in mid-Missouri by Wednesday 21z which corresponds with small but noticeable amounts of 300 mb divergence, 500 mb vorticity, and 700 mb lift. While the areas of lift aren't broad and the values are low, they will be enough to encourage cloud formation Wednesday afternoon and evening. This won't result in precipitation, however, due to the shallow nature of the saturation; while RH values will be as high as 80%, they will be restricted to shallow layers near 700 mb and the overall area of saturation is small.
Low-level clouds will have built in completely by Thursday 00z which corresponds with a wind shift at 850 mb from SW to S by 03z. This broad area of moisture, which corresponds with high amounts of 300 mb divergence; 500 mb vorticity; and 700 mb omega across southern and central MO, will result in moderate rain which will last from 03-06z to 21z Thursday. The rain is associated with a surface-based warm front, which is the result of a low pressure system which will be located over Wichita 18z Thursday and will continue to move into MO. We expect around a half of an inch from this rain system.
-Clark
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