Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Cloudy with a high of 55 degrees Fahrenheit

 

 

Monday Night: Cloudy with a low of 39 degrees Fahrenheit

Tuesday: Light Steady Rain with a high of 43 degrees Fahrenheit

 

 

Tuesday Night: Light Steady Rain with a low of 41 degrees Fahrenheit

 

 

Wednesday: Cloudy with a high of 50 degrees Fahrenheit

 

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Discussion:

Expect another week of cold weather as we begin December. Monday and Wednesday should be cloudy days, but be on the lookout for light steady rain Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Maybe bring with you your raincoat or umbrella to make sure you stay dry.

-Samson

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Forecasters: Samson, Travis

Date Issued: 12/05/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

Potential for rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night. For the forecasting period, both the GFS20 and NAM12 models were used, partiality was given to the NAM12, the reason why will be given further in the AFD.

 

Building on the aforementioned rain on Tuesday, a combination of rising air, low level saturation, and a warm front south of Columbia has lead to the possibility of light rain. Surface winds out from the northeast suggests the warm front's effect on the chances for rain. Emphasis for this forecast on light rain. The saturation is not deep enough to sustain moderate rainfall, petering out around 800 mb. So, if we do get rain it will be minimal. For the most part outside of Tuesday there is not a lot of noteworthy things happening in the atmosphere. At the end of the period, at the 250- and 300-mb level, on Wednesday there is a jet core moving through Central Iowa into Illinois and Wisconsin that is causing some divergence over the forecasting area at 18z. However, it does not last very long. The GFS predicts a lot more divergence than the NAM, but there does not seem to be reason for that. So, the NAM's prediction seems more reliable.

Future forecasters should be aware of an approaching center of low pressure that is moving northwest. Currently and through the period it has not seemed to have affected the Columbia area yet. However, as it approaches it will bring with it significant low-level convergence, positive vorticity, and negative omega. Impacts on future weather predictions will be seen in the coming days.

-Samson