Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 45
Friday: Morning Fog. Mostly Cloudy. High: 47
Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 40
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Discussion:
Through the end of the week the cloud cover will persist and temperatures will remain in the upper 40’s for the forecasting period. The hot topic is the rain entering the CWA we will see Thursday morning and persist through the day ending late Thursday night. Finish the week strong and don’t forget those umbrellas for Thursday.
-Jones
Forecasters: Cochran, Jones
Date Issued: 12/07/2022 6:30 PM CST
This forecast was made using the GFS20 due to it starting off with better agreement in the placement and intensity of moisture with the 18Z surface map from the NWS. Thursday will bring rain into the CWA lasting through the day and tapering off Thursday night. To end the week, clouds and mild temperatures will persist until Friday.
Upper-level maps have a trough northeast of Missouri, keeping the polar jet in our area with a jet streak over IA Wednesday night. Zonal flow will continue through the week until a LPS comes into the area Saturday at 12Z, finally pushing the jet stream to the east. Upper-level divergence enters the CWA at 09Z Thursday and will persist through the day. Vorticity, moving in from the SW, arrives early Thursday morning and persists until Friday 03Z.
At the 700mb and 850mb a trough sitting over Colorado moves NE and passes through northern Iowa. This brings with it moisture from the SW that enters the area at 06Z Thursday and intensifies through the day. This paired with SFC convergence and upper-level vorticity allows for upward motion, bringing clouds and rain. As the LPS continues eastward, it takes the moisture out of the area around 06Z Friday. Another trough approaching from the west will bring less intense moisture into the area from the SW Saturday at 09Z.
GFS soundings show the air will become more saturated this evening and into early Thursday morning as the midlevel moisture enters the region. Expect rain to begin around this time at 09Z. The rain will continue through the day leaving up to 0.50in before dissipating Thursday night as a HPS over KS kicks it out. SFC winds will be light at 10kt and shift from the east to the west, but our temperatures remain steady through the end of the week in the high 40s. Thursday night’s cloud cover keeps temperatures in the mid 40s, with slightly cooler temps on Friday night.
Future forecasters should be on the lookout for more precipitation on Saturday as midlevel and surface level maps suggest rain could be possible.
-Jones
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