Tuesday, December 6, 2022







Tuesday Night:
Mostly Cloudy. Low: 39


 

Wednesday:
Partly Cloudy with clouds increasing. High: 50






Wednesday Night:
Rain Late. Low: 42
 

 


Thursday:
Light Rain. High: 49
 
 




Thursday Night:
Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41

 

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Discussion:

Mid-Missouri is expecting a dreary week for the next few days as clouds will be enveloping the sky. Mild temperatures this week will persist with daytime highs in the 40s to near 50. You'll want an umbrella heading out the door Thursday morning as light rain will be falling until moving out Thursday afternoon.

-Simmons

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 12/06/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion: 
 
For this forecast period both the NAM12 and GFS20 were used based on their agreement on the jet stream placement over the Central CONUS. Consistency with the surface low placement over northern Arkansas caused us to use a blend between both models for the disturbance later this week. This disturbance will allow for measurable rainfall starting Wednesday night into Thursday.

Starting Tuesday night, 300mb analysis shows the subtropical jet stream over Missouri with the polar jet over the Canadian/CONUS border. Westerly mid-level flow will continue tonight as low level saturation exits the area late tonight. The stationary front in southeast MO at 21Z is currently responsible for the lower stratus deck. As the low moves to the east, clouds will begin to diminish late tonight.

Wednesday will be calm between the current surface low exiting and an approaching shortwave in the West. The upper-level shortwave trough over the West Coast will traverse into the Mountain West over time Wednesday. Mid-level spin moves in Wednesday night starting at 06Z Thursday. This, coupled with low-level saturation will bring us cloud cover starting Wednesday night. At 03Z, mid-level southwesterly flow will begin at 06Z helping with the buildup of moisture. 

Thursday will bring us widespread rain over MO. The shortwave trough will eject out of the Mountain West and into Nebraska/Iowa at the mid levels. This will help aid in vorticity advection between Thursday 06Z and 21Z. Rising motion will help the development of precipitation starting near Thursday 12Z and continue until Thursday afternoon. The rain is expected to move out by Thursday evening as the surface low associated with the shortwave will move over Northern MO. A warm front attached to this low will slide through between Friday 00Z-06Z keeping clouds around Thursday night. NBM precipitation and KCOU plume analysis shows around 0.5 inches of rain between Wednesday night-Thursday.


-Simmons

 

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