Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 37
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 63
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Discussion:
A warm and breezy Friday lies ahead, but a cold front passing overnight will cause a large drop in temperatures for Saturday. The weekend will stay mostly sunny with temperatures in the 40s.
- Chirpich
Forecasters: Chirpich and VanUnnik
Date Issued: 12/1/2022 5:00 PM CST
The 12Z run of the GFS was chosen as it handled the upcoming temperature drop on Friday night better than the NAM. This forecast focuses on the passage of the cold front late Friday night which brings a large temperature change for Saturday.
As of Thursday night, the wind flow over the forecast area is primarily from the southwest. This is seen at all levels from 250mb down to the surface. A positively tilted trough centered over the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Colorado will be the driving force of this forecast period. A cold front extends south of the low pressure system, along the trough axis, and is expected to pass through the area late Friday night. This is evidenced by the quick wind shift from a southwesterly flow at 03Z on Saturday, to northwesterly by 06Z as the trough axis passes over the forecast area.
Tightly packed thickness lines were found at the same time step along with solenoids, indicating cold air advection. The low-level jet is present both Thursday night and Friday night, and this along with the cold front will aid in the formation of clouds. The cold front will allow for a large temperature change from Friday to Saturday, with sky conditions clearing after the FROPA. GFS soundings showed cloud cover but no precipitation ahead of the cold front.
- Chirpich
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