Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 13

 
 

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 35

Wednesday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 24


 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 42

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear Low: 15

 

 

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Discussion: 

Temperatures will begin to gradually warm up out ahead of an approaching cold front with high temperatures in the mid-30s on Wednesday and into the 40s by Thursday. The frontal passage will be over Mid-Missouri by Thursday afternoon with cold northerly winds on the backside. No precipitation will be associated with the front due to the lack of moisture in the mid to lower levels.

- McCormack

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Forecasters: Smith, McCormack, Peine

Date Issued: 1/31/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

The GFS was favored for this forecast for its better handling of moisture at the time of diagnostics when compared to the NAM. The main focus will be regarding the passage of a cold front midday Thursday but outside of that weather is expected to be calm and clear.


The main upper level system is a low pressure system over northeast Canada. The jet stream, as seen at 250 mb, is currently sitting to the east of Missouri as it follows the LPS out east and northward. Small patches of upper level divergence associated with the exiting jet stream will sporadically frequent the area. The 500 mb map of vorticity shows a strong band moving through the area at 9Z Thursday and then another weaker band will move through the area 3Z Friday. These bands are being driven by a LPS over Baja California and then they are getting picked up and drug over Mid-MO via zonal flow
The major story of the mid to low levels is the lack of moisture. The same aforementioned LPS continues to sit in the far northeastern reaches of Canada at these layers. Throughout the forecast period, this relatively strong system will keep the area dry as strong zonal flow keeps the moisture in the northern states, limiting cloud development. In spite of this, GFS soundings still show occasional upper level cloud development likely due to the aforementioned vorticity bands. Later on, we can see CAA mid Thursday into early Friday morning due to a SFC HPS sitting over MN. There will be a shift in the winds from the west to the north bringing cold air and colder temperatures starting around 15Z Thursday. Columbia’s temperatures, which will have highs in the upper 30’s/low 40’s Wednesday and Thursday, will be cut down as this front moves through bringing the areas highs into the low 30’s for Friday. Due to radiative cooling and calm winds, the low temps on Tuesday and Thursday will reach down to 13F and 15F respectively. On Wednesday evening however there will likely be more clouds shown by soundings holding the low for the evening at 24F.




-Smitty