Wednesday: Light snow transitioning to a rain/snow mix. High: 38
Thursday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 23
Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 47
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Discussion:
It looks as if the snow will move out of the area midday Wednesday, leaving mid-Missouri with an overcast sky throughout the day. Thursday the clouds move out and then right back in on Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s on Wednesday before dipping below freezing all day Thursday. Then the low-level jet will bring warmer temps Friday, could even see upper 40s.-Ritsema
Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark
Date Issued: 1/25/2023 10:00 AM CST
Key messages:
The low-pressure system will continue to move northeast through southern Illinois and Indiana taking the precipitation with it. Expect snow to move out of mid-Missouri by Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast Discussion:
Diagnostics showed similarities between the NAM and GFS in the short-term, however, the NAM takes a cold bias of over ten degrees compared to the NBM and GFS. Therefore, this forecast was mainly influenced by the GFS and NBM.
In the upper atmosphere at 300mb, the long wave trough over the central United States will continue to weaken as the trough begins to shift to a more positively tilted formation. By Friday, the jet stream will have weakened and mid-Missouri will transition into a more zonal flow, although, a long wave trough is still situated over most of the CONUS. Winds are taking a westerly flow as of Wednesday at 15z and persist throughout the forecasting period.
The story at the 500mb level is the series of shortwaves that move through the CWA. Vorticity levels are high Wednesday morning due to the back-end of the low pressure system oriented over the southern Ohio River Valley. Thursday at 6z a shortwave moves through mid-Missouri and along with it higher levels of vorticity. This will influence the cloud cover late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Another shortwave moves through Friday 00z which, again, will cause an increase in cloud formation. Yet another shortwave will move through Friday morning 15z until Saturday 00z.
Moisture begins to move out at the 700mb level between 18z and 21z today. Friday at 15z, the shortwave moving through will be accompanied by moisture and higher vertical velocities. Due to this, precipitation is not out of the question for Friday, yet chances are less than 10%. Wind patterns differ from the jet stream as winds take a northwesterly flow at 30 kts strengthening to 40-45 kts Friday.
850mb share a lot of similarities with the 700mb level. Moisture is in place Wednesday, moving out Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A brief break in moisture will allow for cloud cover to decrease throughout the day Thursday. Then, again, more moisture moves in from the northwest on Friday 15z. A weak low-level jet from the northwest will bring cooler air into the CWA Thursday, dropping the temperatures below freezing. Then, the LLJ takes a stronger westerly component at 50 kts.
Moving down to the surface, the low track moves out of southeaster Missouri into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds are weak at 10 kts from the northwest, eventually transitioning to southerly winds due to the shortwave trough over the Northern Plains. This will bring along warmer surface temperatures Friday.
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