Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Clearing late. Low: 14

 

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 24

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear Low: 17

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 39

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 26

 

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Discussion: 

BRRRR! Temperatures remain below average as we continue our way into the week with winds consistently out of the north keeping wind chills in the teens. Things warm up Wednesday as we see our winds shift from out of the southwest slightly warming things up. Our current pattern will keep us dry for the entirety of the forecast period. 

 

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 1/30/2023 5:00 CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

After an active stretch of weather, things look to calm down as the primary storm track will shift systems off to our southwest keeping us calm but cold. A blocking high pattern is locking this long wave trough directly over the eastern half of the United States keeping the south active with repeated storm systems while the north remains bitterly cold and dry. For this forecast we used a blend of the EURO, GFS, and NAM as they all were handling the moisture and temperatures across the region.

 

In the upper levels, as we move into Tuesday a secondary jet streak associated with the subtropical jet will develop across portions of southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. The polar jet continues to shift south Tuesday midday, before the two jets couple, this will lead to the intensification of upper-air winds from 130kts to 160kts by Wednesday morning. This will be timed with a large increase in upper air divergence which will continue to move through the region in waves. This pattern remains locked in place thanks two blocking highs, one located over the pacific and one near the Canadian Maritimes.

 

In the mid levels, we see some moisture at the 700-mb level, with the 850-mb level being fully saturated. This moisture is what is responsible for our cloud cover over the past several days. We see the moisture south south out of the area tonight, leaving us mostly clear for our Tuesday, that is before another push of moisture comes from the southwest. This will again increase mid-level clouds briefly on Wednesday before it gets again shunted off to our south. 

At the surface, light north winds are expected to continue into Tuesday evening before switching to out of the southwest as a surface high pressure gradually shifts over the area. This surface high will be the dominating feature through Wednesday as it sits nearly stationary across the Ohio valley. This overall pattern is going to keep precipitation to our south, keep our temperatures below our seasonal average, and keep our dew points in the single digits. 

-Russell