Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Overcast. High: 43
Monday Night: Increasing cloud cover. Low: 29
Tuesday: Cloudy. High: 44
Tuesday Night: Wintry mix. Low: 32
Wednesday: Morning snow. High: 35
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Discussion:
The main event for this week will come Tuesday evening when we will begin receiving some active weather. Starting off with a wintry mix of snow and rain before transitioning to snow over night. The snow will continue falling Wednesday morning before tapering off by late morning. The morning commute may be slippery but the afternoon should clear up. Temperatures will hang around the mid 40's for highs and low to mid 30's for the lows.
-Jones
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones, Aldrich
Date Issued: 1/23/2023 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
This forecast period, we decided to use the GFS20 due to its readings of surface temperature. Both models were accurate with the placement of the low over Arizona and the high over Nebraska. We also consulted the NBM when it came to snowfall amounts and temperature readings for this period.
As we move into Monday, ridging brings a high pressure system for much of the day and into Tuesday. This changes as a trough builds over Arizona. This system begins to move into mid-Missouri Tuesday evening. Divergence is present but the strongest readings stay southeast of our CWA. This will continue as we move down through the atmosphere.
At the mid-levels, there is upward movement as Veritcal Velocity and Vorticity signatures are strong over mid-Missouri. However, much like the divergence, the stronger readings stay to the southeast. RH readings showed saturation at these levels. Dry air appears to stay to the south as the low moves through mid-Missouri.
At the lower levels, temperature readings fall into the sweet-spot for snowfall with temperatures between 0 C and -10 C. The LLJ also falls to the southeast as the trough becomes negatively tilted. RH levels are consistent with the mid-levels as the system moves through Missouri. Just like the mid-levels, the dry air stays to the southeast which could dictate how much snow we get Tuesday evening and Wednesday.
Surface temperature readings will become crucial when it comes to the snowfall accumulation. With temperatures reaching the upper thirties and lower 40s Tuesday, much of the snowfall could melt before it reaches the surface or melt once it reaches the surface. Ground temperatures currently are slightly above freezing. Given that it will be mostly sunny today, soil temperatures could increase before the snow arrives. Runs show snowfall totals falling between 1-3 inches. The NBM shows a probability of 80% that there will be more than inch of snowfall and 45% of more than two inches. Given the warmer temperatures before the snow, much of the snowfall will melt before it reaches the surface or melt once it reaches the surface. However, the timing of the cooler temperatures could dictate the differences in snowfall totals.
Precip will begin as rain before switching to a wintry mix later in the evening. The timing of this switch depends on the lowering of the surface temperatures.
As we move into Monday, ridging brings a high pressure system for much of the day and into Tuesday. This changes as a trough builds over Arizona. This system begins to move into mid-Missouri Tuesday evening. Divergence is present but the strongest readings stay southeast of our CWA. This will continue as we move down through the atmosphere.
At the mid-levels, there is upward movement as Veritcal Velocity and Vorticity signatures are strong over mid-Missouri. However, much like the divergence, the stronger readings stay to the southeast. RH readings showed saturation at these levels. Dry air appears to stay to the south as the low moves through mid-Missouri.
At the lower levels, temperature readings fall into the sweet-spot for snowfall with temperatures between 0 C and -10 C. The LLJ also falls to the southeast as the trough becomes negatively tilted. RH levels are consistent with the mid-levels as the system moves through Missouri. Just like the mid-levels, the dry air stays to the southeast which could dictate how much snow we get Tuesday evening and Wednesday.
Surface temperature readings will become crucial when it comes to the snowfall accumulation. With temperatures reaching the upper thirties and lower 40s Tuesday, much of the snowfall could melt before it reaches the surface or melt once it reaches the surface. Ground temperatures currently are slightly above freezing. Given that it will be mostly sunny today, soil temperatures could increase before the snow arrives. Runs show snowfall totals falling between 1-3 inches. The NBM shows a probability of 80% that there will be more than inch of snowfall and 45% of more than two inches. Given the warmer temperatures before the snow, much of the snowfall will melt before it reaches the surface or melt once it reaches the surface. However, the timing of the cooler temperatures could dictate the differences in snowfall totals.
Precip will begin as rain before switching to a wintry mix later in the evening. The timing of this switch depends on the lowering of the surface temperatures.
-Herion
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