Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 24
Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 17
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 35
Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 26
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 44
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Discussion:
Be sure to bundle up today as Mid-Missouri will still be dealing with bitter cold temperatures. Expect a gradual warmup starting Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures will rise above freezing and sunshine will make it's return.Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik
Date Issued: 1/31/2023 9:30 AM CDT
Clouds have moved out of the area last night paving way for sunshine to enter Mid-Missouri today. Relatively calm weather will be the focus for the next few forecast periods as a blocking pattern has been the setup recently. This has helped alter numerous storm systems to our south and left us with a colder than average air mass. The 12Z run of both the GFS and NAM were used in their handling of the current state of the surface pressure map as well as their agreement on past temperatures in the last several hours.
Currently, 12Z surface analysis depicts a surface high centered over the Central Plains. This has pushed the cloud cover off to the south and east and allowed for calmer winds. Later today, upper-air zonal flow will permit the merging together of the subtropical and polar jets over the Midwest. The merging jets will bring in multiple areas of wind divergence throughout the Ohio Valley late Tuesday, but will steer far south of our region. Some moisture is apparent in latest model soundings, but sunshine will still be present this afternoon accompanied by some mid-level clouds. Light northerly flow today will also help keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs still around 15-20 degrees below average.
Wednesday will see the dome of high pressure shift eastward. This will begin a wind shift out from the south helping warm temperatures close to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. A band of strong vorticity will be stationed over northern Missouri on Wednesday in accordance with the shortwave in the Desert Southwest. Wednesday night, as the shortwave progresses eastward, areas of circulation will be brought up from the south and combine with the band of strong vorticity. This won't cause significant weather for our area as moisture will be choked off in Mid-Missouri.
The shortwave from the Desert Southwest will move over the South Central US during the day Thursday. Ample moisture will also be present in the Red River Valley and into Arkansas ahead of the shortwave. Plenty of lift will be available with the shortwave Thursday, but it will be confined to the south where we expect the most active weather to be. A gradual warmup is expected from Wednesday-Thursday as 850mb temperatures will rise from -10 degrees Celsius to around 0 degrees Celsius Thursday. It appears that a cold front will be moving into the area from the northwest late in the day on Thursday. Although it appears to be non-impactful, the next forecast shift should monitor how it affects temperatures for Friday.
-Simmons
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