Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High: 44  

 

Tuesday Night: Wet snow beginning around 10pm. Low: 32

 

 

 

 

Wednesday: Snow ending in the early afternoon. High: 35

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 22

 

 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 30

 

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Discussion:

Snow beginning Tuesday night will continue through Wednesday afternoon. This snow will be very dense, so be careful on your Wednesday morning commute! After snowfall ends, temperatures will drop again, and the sky will remain cloudy through Thursday.

- VanUnnik

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Forecasters: Noah Simmons, Eric Meier, Emily VanUnnik

Date Issued: 1/24/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

A very strong low pressure system is expected to bring snow to mid-Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. A combination of the GFS and NAM were used to make this forecast. The GFS and NAM were in agreeance on most aspects, along with reaching a consensus on the low pressure system and its path. NBM and GEFS plumes were also utilized for snowfall amounts.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep cut-off low is situated over western Texas early Tuesday morning. This low will track northeast all day Tuesday until it  arrives to Missouri Tuesday night. This low will bring upper-level divergence into the area, making snow-fall more likely. After the low-pressure system passes over our area, zonal flow returns, besides a weak shortwave over the area Thursday at 300mb.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the low will bring strong bands of vorticity, along with moisture. Strong omega values are also evident Tuesday night into Wednesday. The high amounts of vorticity, vertical velocity, and moisture, along with timing of the system will likely lead to accumulating snow. Once the low-pressure system passes the forecast area, the atmosphere dries out and omega values decrease.

In the low-levels, plenty of moisture will advect into the region Tuesday night. The LLJ is forecasted to stay well to the south. Missouri remains well north of the 540 line, and due to this and all other aspects, we can say that precipitation will be snowfall and not rain. Surface temperatures around 32 degrees Fahrenheit will lead to a heavy, wet snow. After the low-pressure system passes, tight solenoids indicate that cold air advection will bring temperatures down for the rest of our forecast shift. 

Soundings aided in the timing of snowfall, which is expected to begin on Tuesday between 9pm and midnight, not ending until noon-3pm Wednesday. Liquid precipitation totals are likely to be in the 0.25"-0.5" range, while snowfall accumulation totals are expected to range from 2"-4." 

 

 -Meier