Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 46
Friday Night: Clouds moving in over night. Low: 32
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 50
Saturday Night: Increasing clouds, chance of mixed precipitation. Low: 22
Sunday: Overcast clouds, decreasing in the evening. High: 25
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Discussion:
This weekend we will see some above average temperatures. However, on Saturday night there will be a cold front that will usher in a shift in wind direction from southwest to northwest, along with a increased chance of mixed light preciptitation over night. This will bring our temperatures back down to the winter average.
- Allen
Forecasters: Sallot, Allen, McGuire
Date Issued: 1/27/2023 10:27 AM CDT
The main concern of this forecast is the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday and the cold air following the front. Both the GFS and the NAM were used to construct this forecast, but it should be noted that the GFS had a better handle on current conditions.
The jet stream is expected to remain overhead for the entire forecast period, encouraging zonal flow in the upper levels until about Saturday at 18Z, when the winds take on a slight southerly component, but overall flow is still mostly westerly. Upper level divergence is expected around Saturday night into Sunday, around 00Z to 3Z on Sunday, which may support the formation of precipitation.
At 500 mb, vorticity may be advected into the region around Sunday from 03Z to 12Z, but the NAM is expecting a greater intensity of such compared to the GFS, but this feature is present on both models. This vorticity at this time frame may lend to formation of precipitation Saturday night.
Additionally, moisture at 700 mb is expected to enter the CWA around Sunday at 06Z through 18z, however, the NAM is expecting much less than the GFS. Again, there is some model disagreement on the intensity, but the appearance of the structure is similar in shape and timing.
As winds shift from west to a more southwesterly flow at 850 mb around Saturday at 12Z, coupled with the LLJ, this may encourage moisture to enter the CWA ahead of the front. The NAM is expecting a much stronger LLJ that pushes further north than the GFS; this may contribute to the difference in moisture present in each model at 700 mb. Either way, the presence of this LLJ from the southwest may help to encourage precipitation Saturday night.
WAA and southerly flow Saturday will help to warm temperatures into the high 40s and low 50s on Friday and Saturday, but the passage of the cold front Saturday night will likely drop temperatures into the 20s for Sunday. This cold front is expected to pass through the CWA around 00Z to 03Z Saturday night. Along with this cold front, precipitation is expected. Due to the warm temperatures on Saturday, the precipitation will likely be rain, but may transition to snow depending the pace of dropping temperatures. Even if it does snow, the ground temperatures will be too warm for any accumulation. Overall, precip amount is expected to be minimal, lending to minimal, if any, impacts due to this precip.
Sunday should remain cloudy for much of the daylight hours keeping temperatures low, before the clouds dissipate in the afternoon.
- Sallot
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