Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 35
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 22
Thursday: Sunny. High: 46
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 15
Friday: Sunny. High: 32
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Discussion:
Our temperatures continue to rise for the next two days as warm air is brought in from the south. Expect a high temperature today in the mid 30s with tomorrow’s high reaching the mid 40s. Unfortunately a low pressure system to our northeast sweeps a cold front into our area, making Friday colder with the high only reaching 32F. But fear not! The cold front isn’t bringing with it any rain or snow, and the cold temperatures only stick around for one day.
Cochran
Forecasters: Clark, Cochran
Date Issued: 2/1/2023 10:00 AM CST
While both the GFS and NAM were used to construct the forecast due to their agreement on upper-level structure, the timing of the passage of the upper-level trough, and the distribution of moisture in the mid-levels, I used the GFS to forecast surface temperatures as well as the timing of the frontal passage due to it handling the temperatures from the past 12 hours better than the NAM. The NBM was also used for forecasting temperatures and cloud cover.
Wednesday will be cold with clouds in the upper levels, supported by 300 mb saturation and divergence as a jet streak moves off to the east. Despite a large area of high vorticity draped across MO from Kansas City, MO, to Quincy, IL, the 500 mb level, as well as the 700 mb and 850 mb levels below it, are unsaturated, with RH values consistently below 70%. Surface temperatures will remain cold into the night while clouds dissipate before 12z Thursday.
A trough, currently located over the AZ-Mexico border, will move across MO Thursday, bringing with it colder temperatures and no precipitation. Despite the presence of 500 mb vorticity, due to a lack of 700 and 850 mb moisture and lift we are unlikely to get much more than upper-level clouds from the passage of this trough. The passage of this trough is associated with a broad area of 850 mb and surface-based cold air advection, further hindering the formation of low and mid-level clouds.
Thursday will be much warmer than Wednesday, with a clear sky and southerly winds through the day until 18z, when surface winds will shift to the west ahead of a cold front. This front will shift our surface winds to the north around 21z Thursday before those winds intensify to 10-15 kts, which will drop our temperatures to the mid-teens and result in a breezy Friday morning.
Following the frontal passage, Friday morning will be clear and cold. As the day progresses, temperatures will remain at or below freezing and upper-level clouds will build in throughout the afternoon.
-Clark
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