Monday, February 6, 2023

 

 

 




 
Monday: Mostly clear, Windy. High: 60

 

 
Monday Night: 
Light showers. Low: 41

 


 

Tuesday
:
Mostly Clear. High: 49
 

 
 


Tuesday Night:
Mostly Cloudy. Low:36
 
 

 

 
Wednesday: Increasing Clouds, Evening Showers. High: 47
 



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Discussion:

This week brings a welcome to warmer temperatures as today we will reach as high as 60. Looking into Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures sink back down to the upper 40s for highs. Monday evening may bring a few showers but Wednesday evening will be the biggest weather event where Columbia is expected to get up to 1/2in of rain starting in the evening. Thursday will is expected to clear up.


-Jones
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones

Date Issued: 2/6/23 10:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 For this forecast period we decided to go with the GFS 20 due to its grasp of surface conditions and its placement of a surface low over Colorado and a High above Michigan. For temperature forecasts, we consulted with the NBM as well.

A positive tilted trough will be the focus of today's shift along with this week's first precipitation chances coming at the end of our forecast period. Before the arrival of the trough, a ridge stays over mid-Missouri which will continue the warming trend we have seen the last few days. Divergence signatures are high with the arrival of the trough as this will be our highest chance of precipitation for this period.

In the mid-levels, the trough turns negative as it makes its way across Oklahoma and Nebraska. Vorticity signatures are strong as well with the arrival of the trough. There is complete saturation at the 500 mb level before the trough arrives. Omega readings are strong out ahead of the front and are in sync with the Vorticty signatures at the 500 mb level. Just like the 500 mb level, the 700 mb level is also completely saturated before the arrival of the trough. The dry layer also stays to the southeast which will further our chances for lasting precipitation.

At the lower levels, the saturation pattern continues. Temperatures look to be too warm for snow as 850 temperatures hover around 0 C. The low also follows suit with the other levels as well as it has turned negative tilting as it passes through mid-Missouri on Wednesday. There is plenty of Warm Air Advection ahead of the front as well showing that we will get precipitation on Wednesday. Due to the temperature profile, it will likely be rain.

Runs of the GFS' six hour precipitation shows mid-Missouri getting trace amounts of showers this evening. This is in accordance with a low that is pushing through the upper Midwest. The impacts of this front will be minimal as it is likely to pass through late Monday evening. Rain returns Wednesday. This will be where we get our highest amounts of rain.

Model soundings show the 700-900 mb level saturated Wednesday afternoon. This shifts to complete saturation by the evening. This is where we will get most of our rainfall. There is some uncertainty to the amounts of rainfall that mid-Missouri can get as a slight shift of the front could bring totals closer to one inch. The NBM has 60% chance of Columbia receiving more than half an inch of rain. Future shifts should keep note of the track of the position of this front due to the uncertainty in rainfall totals.

- Herion



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