Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 30
Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 25
Saturday: Increasing Clouds. High: 51
Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 36
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Discussion:
Winds shifted overnight, bringing us cold air from the north, dropping the temperature today; we expect to reach only 30 degrees! But, don’t worry, spring-like temperatures will move in for the weekend as temperatures rise into the 50s on Saturday and Sunday. This weekend should be a great opportunity to get outside, full of sun and few clouds. Just in case you forgot that it’s still winter, the overnight lows will be chilly, in the mid 20s tonight and mid 30s Saturday night. Enjoy the weekend tigers!
-Sallot
Forecasters: Allen, Sallot, McGuire
Date Issued: 2/3/23 10:58 AM CST
The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend are temperature shifts that are above average for this time of year. The NAM and GFS were both used for this forecast and were in agreement with each other and were both very close to what the RAP was showing as well.
As the tail end of a positively tilted trough exits our region, our flow becomes more zonal throughout the weekend. This corresponds with the jet stream that is currently overhead of the northern half of MO and should remain so until about Friday 18Z. This is followed by a ridge of high-pressure Saturday morning at about 12Z. After this ridge the jet stream transitions into more of a zonal flow. From Sunday 15Z until the end of this forecast period on Monday 00Z there will be a jet streak that makes its way over MO.
While a short wave moves into MO Saturday 21Z at 500mb, at the same time the GFS and the NAM both indicate there will be some vorticity at Saturday 21Z until Sunday 09Z. However, even though there is vorticity and lift during this time there is hardly any moisture throughout the weekend so there will not be any precipitation.
At 700mb at about Friday 18Z when we see the jet stream leave MO, we will also see CAA leave with it as a wall of WAA moves in from the west throughout MO. This will help bring up our temperatures on Saturday afternoon to above average for winter. At about Sunday 06Z we will transition again to CAA which will bring our temperature down a bit during the morning, however it quickly switches back to WAA which will help warm us up to the 50’s again Sunday afternoon.
Both the GFS and the NAM show that there will be little moisture at 850mb throughout the whole weekend which means there is little chance of seeing any precipitation. The low-level jet could possibly bring in some moisture as it has a southern flow with winds peaking on Sunday 03Z at about 50 kt. This will help warm us up this weekend as well.
Friday afternoon we see a wind shift at the surface from the north to the south which corresponds with the rise in temperatures we will see this weekend.
-Allen
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