Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Monday Night: Scattered showers. Low: 41

 

 

Tuesday:  Cloudy. High: 49

 

 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 36

 

 
 

Wednesday: Widespread showers. Windy at times. High: 44

 

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Showers ending late. Windy at times. Low: 38

 

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Discussion: While today featured unseasonably warm and blustery conditions, several rounds of rain are expected to move across Missouri over the next few days. A weak cold front Monday night could bring scattered showers, but the big rain-maker will move through Wednesday, with rainfall totals expected to be between .75-1". Be sure to have your umbrella on hand!

-Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell

Date Issued: 2/6/23 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Several rounds of rain are poised to move through MO over the course of the next 60 hours as a potent longwave trough traverses slowly east across the central plains, ushering in cooler temperatures as we approach the end of the work week. Our main focus is on an intensifying closed area of low pressure which is currently ejecting out of NM. Models present diverging solutions on the evolution of this system, with the NAM progressing faster and yielding higher QPF values than the GFS and EURO. As this is the case, the GFS and EURO were relied upon more for this forecast period. 

Upper-level ridging continues to move out heading into Monday night as an unimpressive shortwave navigates across MO. Still, moderate divergence aloft is indicative of lift associated with possible scattered shower activity Monday night into Tuesday morning before more intense divergence associated with a stronger neutral to negatively tilted shortwave moves into the area. This region of divergence is further enhanced by a developing jet streak north of MO on Wednesday, which coincides with the most likely time period for moderate to heavy rain. 

Southerly mid-level winds along a tight pressure gradient have pulled plentiful moisture and WAA north during the day on Monday, bringing in unseasonably warm temperatures... though these will briefly be pushed out of the area as a weak cold front moves through early Tuesday morning. Scattered to numerous showers can be expected along this boundary, though mid-level confluence will hinder more widespread activity. Moisture is quick to return, however, as winds once again become southerly ahead of the approaching and intensifying low pressure center. Widespread rain will move in from the south early Wednesday morning. Despite a strong vorticity max and mid-level forcing, enhanced convection appears unlikely due to the presence of a strong inversion between 700 and 500 mb. Finally, CAA will rush in at the end of the forecast period in the wake of the FROPA. 

The tight pressure gradient in the lower levels responsible for our strong winds today (which gusted to 30 mph at Sanborn Field) will broaden out slightly Monday evening as the cold front passes, though winds will still be blustery at times on Tuesday and Wednesday. As was the case aloft, moisture is quick to return as the low intensifies ahead of trough, which becomes negatively tilted by Wednesday afternoon. Right now, rainfall totals between .75-1" look likely- most of this will occur Wednesday morning and afternoon.

-Shaw