Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday: Rainy/Windy. High: 53
Tuesday Night: Isolated Showers Early with Thunder Possible. Low: 41
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 54
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 32
Thursday: Morning Flurries Possible. High: 32
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion: A rainy day will continue for the rest of Valentine's Day as winds will be very strong today. The rain will clear this evening and the winds will also start to lighten up as well ushering in a calmer Wednesday. Expect lots of sunshine and mild temperatures into the 50s for Wednesday before a cold front will drop temperatures on Thursday into the 30s. Some light sprinkles or flurries can't be ruled out especially early Thursday morning at the time of the frontal passage.
-Simmons
Forecasters: Simmons, Meier
Date Issued: 2/14/2023 10:15AM CST
Technical Discussion:
As the previous forecast group mentioned, Missouri is currently experiencing the effects of the one/two punch of active weather this week. The first punch is today as Sanborn Field as already recorded 0.1 inches of precipitation as of 16Z Tuesday. Current radar reflectivity shows a large swath of precip. from Iowa all the way down to the Texarkana region. About 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall is forecasted throughout today including the 0.1 that has already fallen. Both the 12Z GFS and NAM models were used in their consistency with the current placement of the first system situated in SE Colorado. As listed above, the second punch is expected to affect our region Thursday morning with a sharp drop in temperatures.
An upper-level low is currently shown situated at the Kansas/Colorado border. Over time today, the low associated with a shortwave will pass over Missouri this evening. As the shortwave moves east, a strong subtropical jet will be present over the area and will eventually merge with the polar jet Tuesday evening. The strong subtropical jet over Missouri will carry a jetstreak along with it. The left exit region of the jetstreak will bring upper-air divergence responsible for the wide swath of rain today. Vorticity advection will be present today as well as plenty of moisture. This moisture will be aided by a strong LLJ with a 50-70kt jetstreak pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help aid the strong winds at the surface with gusts up to 35 mph today. Some thunder can't be ruled out as the last bit of rain exits the area. The NAM was more bullish on implementing some dynamics for convection than the GFS was. By around 03Z Wednesday the last of the precipitation is expected to move out of the area with clearing behind it.
A calmer Wednesday is on tap as the first shortwave trough traverses eastward. It appears a stationary front will set up around South Central Missouri during the day Wednesday. Although low-level southerly flow will shift to more westerly flow, a clear sky with help temperatures climb into the 50s nonetheless.
As Wednesday night transitions into Thursday, a longwave trough off to our west will start to move into our area. This will help an accompanying cold front move through in the early morning hours of Thursday. A band of vorticity looks to be present associated with the trough. This, along with some moisture at the lower levels will provide us a chance to see some light precipitation along the passing front. It is important to note that there has been some model inconsistency with the passing of the cold front passage with the NAM being early and the GFS being late on the passage. Temperatures look to be in the 30s Thursday morning so flurries or sprinkles are possible as temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day Thursday.
The next forecast group should monitor this frontal passage timing Thursday morning as it will affect temperatures for the daytime high. Any moisture should be monitored as well to see if rain/snow becomes more of a liklihood.
-Simmons
No comments:
Post a Comment