Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Monday: Clear. High: 60

 

 

Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 43

 

 

 

Tuesday:  Rain. High: 53

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41

 

 


 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 56

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

====================================================================

Discussion: 

A warm Monday leads to a rainy Valentine's Day. Most of the rain will fall in the late morning and afternoon so if you have late night date plans, you should be in the clear! Wednesday will be our last warm day before a cold front passes late Wednesday night.

-Herion   

 =================================================================

Forecasters: Jones, Herion, Aldrich

Date Issued: 2/13/2023 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:

The GFS was chosen for this forecast, while both the NAM and GFS agreed on placement of fronts the GFS had a better handle on moisture at the time of this forecast. Overall the main concern during this forecast period will be the precipitation chances heading our way on Tuesday.

At the 250mb level a trough is pushing the sub-tropic jet up into southern portions of Missouri today and tomorrow. Within the trough is a LPS which will bring some divergence into the area on Tuesday morning into the afternoon. 

At the mid-levels the 500mb map has zonal flow until a LPS moving from the SW pushes into the forecasting area Tuesday morning bringing strong bands of vorticity. The vorticity strengthens through the day into the evening. The LPS is then pushed off to the North as a shortwave ridge moves in. 

At the 850mb WAA is present Tuesday with a lot of humidity entering mid Missouri at 09:00Z, this is due to moisture being brought up with the southerly winds. The humidity persists until 00:00 Wednesday with a dry pocket moving over the CWA in the evening. 

The surface supports warmer than average temperatures as the sub-tropical jet carries warmer air into the CWA. The warm moist air combined with convergence at the surface will produce rain showers beginning early afternoon and into the evening on Tuesday. Total precipitation will be .25-.50in. Winds will be from the south for most of this forecasting shift. Tuesday will have Southern winds at 15-20mph, Wednesday will bring a wind shift to the West as a warm front passes through and then to the north bringing in colder air Wednesday Night. 

 The daytime temperatures will be in the mid 50s this week with highest temperature of 60 being reached today. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s for this forecasting shift.

Future forecasters should keep their eyes on the large temperature swing and more precipitation chances as the polar jet enters the mid-west later this week.

-Jones