Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

  Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 23

 

   Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 40

 

 

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy. High: 40

Saturday: Partly Sunny. Low: 30


 

   Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

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Discussion: 

Cooler temperatures will remain the common trend going into Friday. Going into the weekend the warmer air returns bring out highs into the 50s! Clouds building through the weekend bringing with it a chance of rain Friday night into Saturday morning.

-Labit

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Forecasters: Labit, Easter, Macko

Date Issued: 2/23/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Clear skies and colder temperatures have made a comeback this afternoon after a cold frontal passage yesterday brought storms into the region. This passage advected cold air into the region and cooled our temperatures down to the 30s this afternoon. A high-pressure system over Florida and a low-pressure system in the pacific Northwest is keeping our upper-level flow meridional as we head into the weekend. 

 

Friday afternoon at 18Z we start to see a shift in the upper-level flow to more of a zonal flow as that low-pressure moves off to the northeast. Zonal flow will stay until the end of the forecast period. Divergence is also present aloft due to jet-streak coupling over the area producing off and on waves of upper-level divergence throughout the forecast period as well. 9Z on Friday, moisture enters the upper-levels as warm air advects into the area and saturates us aloft until 21Z. However, we don't become saturated near the surface until 03Z Saturday. Due to the timing of the moisture not aligning in all levels, precipitation is not expected in our area. Any precipitation that occurs will be located south of our region. The GFS does resolve some showers possibly getting close to the region late night on Friday into early morning hours on Saturday however any precipitation that falls will have to overcome significant amounts of dry air keeping the precipitation very light. Due to the warm air advection and warming surface temperatures, any precipitation that falls will be rain. Lower-level saturation stays mainly confined to southern Missouri throughout the remainder of the forecast period with the upper-levels remaining dry. We should see clouds start to clear up through out Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. 

 

The next forecasting shift might want to take note of the large low-pressure system moving our way off the coast of California which has the potential to cause severe weather to the west of the region in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday.

 

-Easter