Tuesday, February 14, 2023

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
 
 

Tuesday Night:
Showers possible in the evening. Low: 41

 


Wednesday :
Sunny High: 56

 
 


Wednesday Night: 
Increasing clouds overnight. Showers possible.     Low: 32

 

Thursday :
Cloudy. High: 35

 



Thursday Night:
Decreasing clouds. Low: 17

 

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Discussion: Another round of showers possible tonight for everyone looking for a nice dinner for Valentines Day. These showers will clearl up by the morning leading to a clear and gorgeous day tomorrow with the high being in the mid 50's. Increasing cloudiness and falling temperatures will characterize the days to follow with there being minimal chances for precipitation. The areas temperatures on Thursday will be a high of 35 and a low of 17.

-Smitty

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smith

Date Issued: 2/14/2023 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend of models was utilized for this forecast, however the greatest emphasis was put on the 18Z GFS due to the accurate placement it had with the current position of surface lows and fronts. The problem of the day is in regards to the temperatures over the next few days. With two low pressure systems moving through the Central CONUS within 48 hours, there will be several fronts that will impact the region. The exact timing and position of these fronts remains uncertain at this time due to the lack of consensus between deterministic models. This is resulting in low confidence for temperatures over the next 48 hours.


At 250mb, a longwave trough is currently draped across the CONUS, with two distinct shortwave troughs located within the overall longwave. The first one is a negatively tilted trough that is currently ejecting out of the Rocky Mountains that will begin to dissipate into the longwave trough tonight as it moves to the east. A second, larger trough, is currently over the Pacific Northwest and will begin to strengthen as it moves into the Central Plains on Thursday. At the surface, an occluded low pressure system is located over Nebraska, which brought an occluded front through Columbia around 21Z this afternoon. As this surface low tracks into Minnesota on Wednesday, another surface low will develop upstream, over Colorado, which will lead to the formation of a cold front that will be draped between the two surface lows. This cold front is expected to stall over Mid-Missouri as the surface low over Colorado slowly moves eastward, and will eventually become a stationary front during the day on Wednesday.


This stationary front will result in a sharp temperature gradient, from northwest to southeast, and is the reason there is low confidence in high temperatures for Wednesday. Much of model guidance has this cold front stalling over the region with some members stalling the front over Columbia and some stalling the front to the south of Columbia during the day on Wednesday. The surface low that will be over Colorado on Wednesday will track along the stationary front and move over the region Thursday morning, resulting in the passage of a cold front that will lead to much cooler temperatures for Thursday and Thursday night.


As for precipitation with the surface low on Thursday morning, moisture above the 700mb level will be limited when the best forcing for the precip moves through. Forecast soundings depict that the surface to 850mb will be saturated for the duration of the event. However, the ice crystal growth layer will remain unsaturated, so no ice crystals or dendrites will be present, resulting in the most likely precipitation type to be drizzle. If surface temperatures are below freezing with drizzle falling, then freezing drizzle could occur. However, with ground temperatures in the mid-40s, the only freezing that would occur would be on elevated surfaces with amounts being around 0.01 or less once the precipitation exits the region.

 

Future forecast shifts should monitor the potential for temperatures to rebound this weekend as a ridge builds in and the flow aloft becomes zonal. 

 

- Peine




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