Thursday: Sunny. High: 44
Friday: Sunny. High: 32
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 25
====================================================================
Discussion:
-Chirpich
Forecasters: Chirpich, Cook, and Travis
Date Issued: 2/1/2023 5:00 PM CST
The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast, as it outperformed other models in its forecasting of today's high temperature. The problem of the day for this forecast period is the variable temperatures for the rest of the week caused by the passage of a cold front late Thursday night. While temperatures for the area warm into the mid 40s for Thursday, the front briefly brings mid-Missouri back into a cold spell for Friday.
Before the FROPA, mid-Missouri is in a primarily zonal pattern, indicating fair weather for Thursday. At 500MB, narrow circulation spanning the CONUS from the Desert Southwest to the Ohio River Valley was resolved over much of the Midwest and passes through the forecast area for most of the day on Wednesday and dissipates by Thursday morning. It is believed to be circulation associated with the surface boundary; however, no effects are anticipated at the surface.
The aforementioned cold front extends off of a low-pressure system located over the northeastern part of the United States. This is an interesting case because the low-pressure system will be in Maine by the time its cold front starts to affect the forecast area. The cooler air is evident in the tightly packed 1000-500-MB thickness contours around 03Z on Friday. The southwesterly winds observed on Wednesday noticeably shift to a northern component by Friday, coinciding with the FROPA and thickness contours. Behind it, an upper-level trough envelops the upper-Midwest in much cooler, arctic air for Friday.
As Saturday begins, solenoids were resolved at the surface, indicating that WAA will be a main factor in the warmup for the weekend. A shift to southerly winds intensifies this, leading to high temperatures in the 50s.
-Chirpich
No comments:
Post a Comment