Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Mostly Clear. High: 63
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low:34
Tuesday: Increasing clouds: High 61
Tuesday Evening: Overcast. Low: 46
Wednesday: Rain with a chance of thunderstorms. High: 65
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Discussion:
The beginning part of this week will continue our Spring like weather with sunshine and 60's for the highs. Looking to Wednesday the main focus of this week is a round of rain the area will see and the possible chance of thunderstorms.Heavy rain will be seen late morning Wednesday with it dissipating by the evening.
Jones
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones
Date Issued: 2/20/2023 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
We decided to go with the NAM 12 for our forecast today due to its accuracy of surface conditions. We will also confer with the NBM and GFS for temperature projections. The SREF will be consulted for rainfall totals along with model soundings. The focus of our forecast is the low pressure system that is expected to come into mid-Missouri on Wednesday.
Westerly flow will be the trend for Monday and Tuesday as a Low builds off the coast of Baja California. Throughout the early parts of our forecast period, the low will travel through the desert Southwest before passing through mid-Missouri on Wednesday. Divergence signatures are strong with the passage of this system with the strongest appearing Wednesday afternoon. A Jet streak is will stay over Columbia throughout the forecast period as it will be the fuel that brings the low up to Missouri.
In the mid levels, vorticity signatures are strong throughout the forecast period. Because of the Clipper that is going through Minnesota this week, some vorticity signatures have made their way down to mid-Missouri along with moisture late Monday evening. It could bring trace amounts of rainfall Monday evening. Our next wave of moisture begins to form by Wednesday morning before the front arrives. Omega values match up with the 500 MB moisture for Wednesday along with Vorticity. Moisture at the 700 MB level also lines up with moisture at the 500 mb level. There is ample Warm Air Advection as well with the front.
At the lower levels, moisture is in sync with the upper levels. Southerly winds will continue to transport moisture from the gulf before the arrival of the front. This should continue to warm up as the week continues. A strong lower level jet will continue to bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico bringing our 850 dewpoints into the teens. There will be complete saturation Wednesday afternoon. This is when we expect to see most of our rainfall. To forecast the timing of this system, we consulted model soundings.
Model soundings continue to show saturation at the lower levels during Wednesday morning. This is when the rain will start. Throughout the day, CAPE is present but Total Totals show chances of thunderstorms. As of now, we do not expect any severe weather with this system but we do expect an occasional thunderstorm throughout Wednesday. The rain will last through the end of our forecast period ending in the evening on Wednesday. Model runs show rainfall accumulations of .75 to an inch of rain with the NBM showing totals closer to an inch. SREF runs show totals falling closer to the .75 inch total. We predict totals to be within the range of .75 to an inch of rainfall for Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue their warming trend as westerly and southerly winds should bring temps into the 60s through our forecast period. The high on Wednesday will be dependent on winds and the timing of rainfall. Future shifts should continue to monitor the totals of rain as a slight movement of the low could bring higher rainfall totals southward to mid-Missouri. If this occurs, we could see the potential for higher rainfall totals.
Westerly flow will be the trend for Monday and Tuesday as a Low builds off the coast of Baja California. Throughout the early parts of our forecast period, the low will travel through the desert Southwest before passing through mid-Missouri on Wednesday. Divergence signatures are strong with the passage of this system with the strongest appearing Wednesday afternoon. A Jet streak is will stay over Columbia throughout the forecast period as it will be the fuel that brings the low up to Missouri.
In the mid levels, vorticity signatures are strong throughout the forecast period. Because of the Clipper that is going through Minnesota this week, some vorticity signatures have made their way down to mid-Missouri along with moisture late Monday evening. It could bring trace amounts of rainfall Monday evening. Our next wave of moisture begins to form by Wednesday morning before the front arrives. Omega values match up with the 500 MB moisture for Wednesday along with Vorticity. Moisture at the 700 MB level also lines up with moisture at the 500 mb level. There is ample Warm Air Advection as well with the front.
At the lower levels, moisture is in sync with the upper levels. Southerly winds will continue to transport moisture from the gulf before the arrival of the front. This should continue to warm up as the week continues. A strong lower level jet will continue to bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico bringing our 850 dewpoints into the teens. There will be complete saturation Wednesday afternoon. This is when we expect to see most of our rainfall. To forecast the timing of this system, we consulted model soundings.
Model soundings continue to show saturation at the lower levels during Wednesday morning. This is when the rain will start. Throughout the day, CAPE is present but Total Totals show chances of thunderstorms. As of now, we do not expect any severe weather with this system but we do expect an occasional thunderstorm throughout Wednesday. The rain will last through the end of our forecast period ending in the evening on Wednesday. Model runs show rainfall accumulations of .75 to an inch of rain with the NBM showing totals closer to an inch. SREF runs show totals falling closer to the .75 inch total. We predict totals to be within the range of .75 to an inch of rainfall for Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue their warming trend as westerly and southerly winds should bring temps into the 60s through our forecast period. The high on Wednesday will be dependent on winds and the timing of rainfall. Future shifts should continue to monitor the totals of rain as a slight movement of the low could bring higher rainfall totals southward to mid-Missouri. If this occurs, we could see the potential for higher rainfall totals.
-Herion
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