Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 63

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 43
 

Wednesday: Partly Sunny. High: 57

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 34

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:

Mild temperatures along with few clouds will be prevalent for this week. A weak cold front is expected to pass through Wednesday afternoon which may impact the high temperature Wednesday. However, the cold front is expected to be very weak meaning that precipitation won't occur Wednesday.

- Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier

Date Issued: 02/28/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

For this forecast period, dry and mild weather is expected to persist for the next few days. Central Missouri will have a cold front passage during the day Wednesday which will have to be monitored. At this point in time, it appears to be a dry frontal passage. However, daytime high temperatures will be affected from north to south in Missouri as the front moves through. Both the GFS20 and NAM12 models were utilized for this forecast due to the similar temperature differences from this morning. 

Zonal Flow aloft will dominate the CONUS for the rest of Tuesday. This will allow for calm and tranquil weather both aloft and at the surface. A strong subtropical jet will be positioned over Missouri today and into tomorrow which will pave the way for the next storm system later this week. Later this evening, a warm front is expected to pass through. Some clouds are possible with the passing of this front, but precipitation won't be a factor due the lack of rising motion and any sustainable moisture aloft. 

Wednesday will have a slight shift to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching long-wave trough on the west coast. Although, Wednesday should still be warmer than average for this time of year, daytime highs are expected to be slightly cooler as weak cold front will sag south. Both models were in agreement with the passing of this front occurring around midday which would hinder temperatures reaching into the 60s by afternoon. Once again, not much moisture will be prevalent for Mid-MO until you get to far SE Missouri where moisture will be enhanced.

The upper-level low associated with the long-wave trough to our west will become cutoff Thursday morning over the Mountain West. The low is expected to eject off the southern Rockies and into the Newtexlahoma region during the day Thursday. It will strengthen rapidly as it moves through Oklahoma Thursday afternoon which will bring us upper air divergence late Thursday afternoon. Cloud cover will move in rapidly during the day Thursday as well as a strong easterly wind ahead of the strengthening surface low.

While the rain is expected to hold off until Thursday evening, it is important to note that rising motion and increased moisture will be getting added to Mid-Mo around Friday 00z. Although this is the cutoff point of our forecast period, the next group should monitor the speed and track of the surface low as it will impact precipitation chances and timing for Thursday/Friday.

-Simmons