Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 36

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 63

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 41

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear with increasing clouds Low: 34

 

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Discussion: 

Spring-like conditions continue through the week with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds will be generally calm making things rather comfortable for late February so enjoy them while you can!

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 2/27/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Above average temperatures and clear conditions are the main story for the first half of the week. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal with generally sunny conditions giving us a nice taste of spring. For this forecast we primarily used the GFS over the NAM due to it having a better handle on surface temperatures due to the development of the surface high situated to our north. 

The weak upper-level riding currently residing overhead is continuing to move to our east as we see a trough begin to dive down across the pacific northwest. A large blocking high situated over the southern Caribbean has locked the subtropical jet across the CONUS which, as the trough across the Continental divide pushes further south, will couple with the sub tropical jet parking a jet streak directly over central Missouri through the entirety of the forecast through Thursday. As we head into Tuesday we see a weak low-level high pressure develop across the Central Plains, this will leave us with generally clear skies with light winds. Temperatures will hinge on the progression of the disturbance that moves through Tuesday afternoon which will slowly push a lack luster warm front through the state. Poor saturation throughout the atmosphere will prevent anything in the way of precipitation, however a few upper-level clouds are expected. 

We will see a feeble shortwave traverse along the jet-stream as we move into Wednesday morning. This is in connection to a low-level low pressure will move off the upper Rockies into the northern plains. This will swing a moisture starved cold front through the area which will bringing nothing more then a slight wind shift from the southwest to the northwest which will keep our Wednesday slightly cooler than Tuesday but still above average. As prior mentioned, there will be nothing in the way of moisture across all levels of the atmosphere so no clouds are expected let alone any precipitation leading to dry FROPA. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will feature another subtle wind shift to an easterly direction as another lacking surface high will develop over Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

Future forecasters should make notice of the passage of the warm front Tuesday as that may cause temperatures to under preform current expectations. Additionally, strong confidence across all major models that the deepening trough located across the Pacific Northwest will dive south bringing a powerful low-pressure system into the region which needs to be closely monitored.

-Russell