Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 36
Wednesday Night: Widespread Rain. Heavy at times. Low: 36
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Morning flurries. Low: 32
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Discussion: Rain is expected to move into the region from south to north on Wednesday, reaching Columbia by the afternoon hours. The heaviest rain will fall during the overnight hours Wednesday night with around an inch of total rainfall expected. A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain as the system departs Thursday morning. Make sure you have an umbrella with you and dress warm as this will be a very cold soaking rain.
Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smith
Date Issued: 2/7/23 5:00 PM CST
A blend of both the 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS models were utilized for this forecast. There was a large disagreement in temperatures as well as the placement and timing of synoptic scale features. With no clear reason for the discrepancy, a mixture between the NAM and GFS were used for forecasting temperatures, precipitation amounts, and sky conditions during our forecast period.
At 250mb we are tracking an upper-level trough that is moving across the Southern Plains, allowing for southwesterly flow across the central CONUS. After last night’s cold front passage, high temperatures today were still several degrees above average (avg. high 43) due to the dominant pattern aloft. With the aforementioned front stalling across northeast Arkansas and a surface low that is forecasted to form over northeast Texas by tomorrow morning, confidence is increasing for widespread rain over central Missouri as the low continues to deepen and push further north Wednesday into Thursday. Mid to upper-level clouds associated with this system have started to move into the region and will continue to build in as we head into tonight, keeping low temperatures in the mid-30s.
By Wednesday morning, moisture will begin to advect into central Missouri with the approaching low pressure center, bringing low-level stratus from the south. Rain will spread into the region as we head into the afternoon with the low pressure centered across eastern Oklahoma. High temperatures on Wednesday will only make it into the mid 40s with the presence of rain and southeast winds at the surface. As the low tracks past Oklahoma, uncertainty is evident with the location of the low-level jet. The NAM has the nose of the jet over central Missouri, favoring higher rainfall totals for our area, while the GFS has it further to the east across southern Illinois, keeping heavier rain over southeast Missouri. Either way, rain will be widespread over our region Wednesday night as the low continues to deepen, allowing for greater moisture advection. Pressure gradients will tighten as this system moves over central Missouri throughout the night, causing strong winds from late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Wind gusts above 30 mph are possible. With the center of the low overhead and rain forecasted most of the night, low temperatures will only make it down into the mid 30s as we are forecasting .5-.75” of rain overnight.
The surface low will exit the region early Thursday morning and become vertically stacked across central Illinois, bringing drier air from the north. Rain chances will diminish after sunrise, so total rain expected through Thursday morning is .75-1”. Surface winds out of the west will remain over the area due to southwesterly flow aloft, allowing high temperatures to be in the upper 40s Thursday afternoon with some peaks of sunshine. Cloud cover will quickly return to the region Thursday night as a weak cold front located over southeast Nebraska will eject cooler, northerly winds through the overnight hours. With low temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 30s and moisture present from 500mb down to the surface, precipitation chances are more likely late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Fortunately, impacts will be minimal due to weak forcing and warm ground temperatures.
Future forecast shifts should monitor the presence of upper-level ridging across the region which will favor above average temperatures for the weekend and early next week.
-McCormack
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