Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 44

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 17

 

Friday:  Sunny. High: 32

 

 

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 25

 

 

 

 Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 51

 

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Discussion:

Happy Groundhog's Day! Unfortunate news for any fans of warmer weather; Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today and is predicting 6 more weeks of winter. While high temperature won't break freezing on Friday, thankfully here in Missouri, we can expect clear skies and warmer than average temperature arriving for the weekend.

-Hefner

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Forecasters: Macko, Sampson, and Hefner

Date Issued: 2/2/2023 10:30 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

The 12Z run of the GFS20 was used for the construction of this forecast in part to maintain consistency with prior forecasting shifts. Additionally, the GFS20 proved to have a better handling of upper-level moisture, which was supported by model agreement with the ECMWF. The main focus for our forecast period will be the frontal passage Thursday evening to examine shifting wind and variable temperatures.

At the 250-mb level, the GFS20 resolves a trough located over the Southern Great Plains. This trough will travel east-northeast, moving into our region Friday 00-03Z, introducing a cold front. Due to lack of moisture and low amount of negative Omega, no precipitation nor increase in cloud cover is expected to occur over mid-Missouri. With the passage, winds will shift from southwesterly to northerly and will aid in advecting cooler air into the area for Thursday evening, dropping temperature slightly.

By Friday 21Z, the shortwave will fully exit our region with a 500-mb ridge to traversing eastward to replace the aforementioned trough. As such, pleasant weather is expected on Saturday with winds turning out of the south, bringing warmer than average temperatures to Columbia.

-Hefner