Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Thursday: Cloudy with light morning drizzle. High: 37

Thursday Night: Light precipitation to stop, cloudy. Low: 20

Friday: Sunny. High: 37

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 26



 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 52

 

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Discussion: 

Currently there's some light drizzle occurring over Columbia so make sure to grab an umbrella before walking out the door today. Thankfully, precipitation is expected to completely stop this evening and clear sky conditions with warm temperatures will quickly follow. Good news for all the weekend warriors, Saturday temperatures are expected to climb in the lower 50s.

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Forecasters: Hefner, Samson, Macko

Date Issued: 2/16/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The focus of this forecasting is tracking the ongoing drizzle to determine if there will be a transition into freezing drizzle. For this forecasting shift, the GFS20 was used due to its handling of saturation at the 700mb and 850mb levels. The GFS20 is drier than its counterparts, which is a better representation of the light precipitation which has occurred over Columbia. Additionally, HRRR soundings and SREF ensembles were used to offer insight as to when precipitation will come to an end. 

The Colorado low pressure currently affecting mid-Missouri is thankfully having less of an impact than was previously forecast by earlier shifts. Prior shifts mentioned a measurable precipitation of around 0.5" with freezing drizzle transitioning to sleet. Fortunately, drier conditions at the 850mb level and weak negative Omega values has led to a drastic change from what was expected. At the time of writing, Sanborn Field is only reporting 0.02" of precipitation which has consisted of light mist to a drizzle.

 

HRRR soundings were used in the top-down winter forecasting method to determine the threat of potential winter weather. Due to warm upper-level temperatures at the point of saturation, it is safe to assume ice crystal initiation has not occurred in the column. Prior forecasting shifts mentioned the threat of freezing rain transitioning into sleet, however, wet-bulb temperatures are too warm to facilitate the necessary conditions of such precipitation. While sleet can be ruled out for our forecast, the threat of freezing drizzle cannot. Surface temperatures are currently at 32.3F. While we believe temperatures will increase throughout the day, if there happens to be a sudden decrease in surface temperatures, the drizzle may transition into freezing drizzle. If this event does occur, we expect there to be minimal impact on road conditions. 

 

The current ongoing precipitation is expected to stop at the 21Z hour. HRRR soundings indicate the column will begin to dry out from the top as well as be cut off from any measurable negative Omega values. In total precipitation values are not expected to exceed 0.05".

 

The low pressure system currently affecting mid-Missouri is expected to push out this evening. Following in its wake will be a shift to more zonal flow. Additionally, a lack of moisture present in the upper atmosphere suggests clear sky conditions for the remainder of the forecasting period. Furthermore, winds will begin to shift out of the southwest on Saturday at 00Z leading to WAA and surface temperatures in the low 50s. Future forecasting shifts should be aware of the chance for CAA arriving Sunday causing cooler temperatures for mid-Missouri. 

 

-Hefner