Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 41

Thursday Night: Clouds moving in. Mostly Clear. Low: 23

 

 

 

 

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 40

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 30



 

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

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Discussion: 

After Wednesday's showers, expect colder temperatures today and tomorrow with a high of 41 and 40 degrees respectively. However, at the end of the period on Saturday we will get warmer weather, reaching into the fifties!

-Samson

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Forecasters: Hefner, Samson, Macko

Date Issued: 2/23/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

After the rain Wednesday, a cold front passed through Columbia leading to colder temperatures and clearer skies for Thursday. For our forecasting shift, the GFS20 model was favored due to its better handling of current weather conditions.

At the 300mb level for Thursday, Columbia will begin on the east side of a positively-tilted trough centered over the Pacific Northwest United States. As this trough begins to dissipate, the Columbia area will begin to transition into zonal flow; however, this will not come to fruition until Friday night. Additionally, upper-level wind divergence is sparce both Thursday and Thursday night, and it should not have an effect on curent weather. Similarly, vorticity analysis at the 500mb level suggests any intense circulation will remain to the north and west of Columbia. The largely uneventful period in the atmosphere continues down to the 700mb level which for Thursday and Thursday night as negative Omega values are rather low, and the atmosphere is mostly dry, although overnight Thursday moisture will roll into our atmosphere from 09Z to 12Z Friday and continue on into Friday. This moisture will lead to some cloud cover at the 700mb layer. The 850mb level, just as the 700mb level, is expected to remain dry; however, at the 850mb level there will not be any overnight moisture for Thursday night. The GFS does resolve a low-level jet forming to the south of Columbia in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Down at the surface, winds will shift from the west to the north bringing in colder air from the north and lowering temperatures even further.

For Friday and Friday night, at the 300mb level, we will transition from meridional into zonal flow overnight Friday. Still no discernible amounts of wind divergence. Similarly down at the 500mb level there is no circulation affecting Columbia. However, down at the 700mb level, the high relative humidity values overnight Thursday will continue on until about 09Z Saturday. The mositure here will  result in cloud cover at the 700mb level. At the 700mb level the CAA will transition to WAA from 15Z Friday to 09Z Saturday. At the 850mb level moisture will not be noticeable until overnight Saturday 03Z to 12Z. Thus, more cloud cover will build in throughout the night. Furthermore, the WAA will begin at 15Z Friday and last until 09Z Saturday, leading into rising temperatures. The winds at the surface coincide with the change in temperature advection as they transition from a northerly component to an easterly component around 21Z.

Rounding out the forecast for Saturday at the 300mb level, Columbia will be in zonal flow to end, and the GFS resolves wind divergence around Columbia at 18Z Saturday until the end of the period. At the 500mb level, there still is not much circulation occuring over Columbia. However, a small band of circulation will reach into southern Missouri towards Saturday night. At 700mb, there is some negative Omega resolving from 00Z Saturday reaching into 15Z Saturday. Additionally, the atmosphere is dry during Saturday. Furthermore, there will be a small pocket of CAA from 09Z until 15Z before transtioning back to WAA for the rest of the period. Going down to the 850mb level, moisture will reach Columbia as the low-level jet will begin to affect it at 21Z Saturday and continue on for the rest of the period. Therefore, there will still be cloud cover for Saturday. Additionally, the temperature advection is similar to the 700mb level. CAA will occur from 09Z Saturday to 15Z, then it will transition into WAA from 15Z to the end of the period. Concluding with the surface, winds will switch to the north at 06Z Saturday; however, by the end of the period, a surface low will move over Columbia causing a brief period of calm winds.

Future forecast shifts should be aware of potential precipitation for Sunday. GFS soundings show saturation occuring at the 850mb level at 21Z Saturday to 03Z Sunday; however, the dry layer appears to be too large to support precipitation. Furthermore at 06Z Sunday the surface temperature and dewpoint values are very close together. Potential drizzle or light precipitation could happen.

 

-Samson