Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

 Wednesday Night: Rain. Up to 1" expected. Low:

 
 

Thursday: Switch from rain to snow in the morning, then dry and sunny by the afternoon. High:

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low:

 

Friday: Morning clouds with a few flurries possible, then a sunny afternoon. High:

 

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low:

 

 

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Discussion:  

Expect a rainy Wednesday night that transitions to snow early Thursday morning. We'll get to see some sunshine Thursday afternoon before a few more clouds build in that night. You might see a few flurries Friday morning that will quickly way to a sunny afternoon.

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Cook and Chirpich
 

Date Issued: 2/8/2023 5:00 PM CST 

Technical Discussion: 

Missouri will be seeing a good amount of precipitation as this workweek draws closer to an end. Two different systems will be passing through the area, one on Wednesday night, and one on Thursday night. Both will be responsible for the precipitation that Missouri will be receiving during this forecasting period. Like so many other times, the GFS models more closely resembled current conditions at the time of forecasting. Because of this, the 12Z run of the GFS model, along with GFS model soundings, was used to formulate this forecast. 

Upper air analysis at 300MB shows a trough situated just to the west of the CWA on Wednesday night. This trough will be bringing active weather to much of the Midwest, including Missouri. The trough is showing signs of negative tilt, suggesting an increased likeliness for active weather. However, the worst of the active weather looks to stay to the south, around Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Arkansas. 300MB divergence signatures are prevalent along the east side of the trough. This is the result of the lift that allows for precipitation tonight. At 500MB, max vorticity signatures are present out ahead of the low-pressure system, supporting the existence of lift to its east. Combine this with Geometric Vertical Velocity signatures and ample moisture at 700MB in the same area at the same time, and rain is very likely. At 850MB, there exists a Low Level Jet that is feeding moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into this low-pressure system supplying this system with all the needed moisture to produce rain.  

Soundings from Wednesday night shows a deeply saturated atmosphere, supporting rain. The rain continues overnight, until early Friday morning, where the rain will switch to a wintry mix. Up to 1" of measurable precipitation is expected overnight. Light snow is expected to continue until midday. Dryer conditions are expected Friday afternoon as clouds clear. The passage of the low-pressure system over Missouri is evidenced by the high omega values seen in the early hours of Thursday morning. Clouds return Thursday night with a chance for flurries early Friday morning. However, this will be a brief period of snow and no accumulation is expected. Surface temperatures for both precipitation events are near 40 degrees, ensuring any snow that does fall will melt on impact. This means minimal travel hazards beyond wet roadways.

-Cook and Chirpich