Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 25

 

Saturday: Partly Cloudy in the am. High: 48

 

 

Saturday Night:  Clear. Low: 27

 

 

Sunday: Sunny sky. High: 58

 

 


 

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 34

 

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Discussion: 

Conditions will remain warm and stable throughout the forecast period thanks to a ridge situated over the central plains. An absence of moisture will result in a clear sky with the exception of a partly cloudy sky on Saturday morning. Winds will be calm and comfortable, making this weekend a good one for outdoor activities.

-Sausen     

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Forecasters: Sausen, Thomas, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/10/2023 4:20 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

We chose the NAM for this forecast, as it handled overnight lows much better than the GFS, although a notable cold bias seems present compared to KCOU observations in all models today.

At the 300mb level, a positively tilted trough is positioned over the central third of the CONUS, and its associated low looks to slowly become cut off over OK by tonight. A second neutral shortwave trough is currently situated off the coast of OR/WA, and moving much slower, leaving the jetstream sandwiching the main trough’s axis. A second jet streak was briefly noted on the northwest edge of the eastern side of the trough but was quickly absorbed into the main jet streak, creating a jet maxima over NY/PA. The western side of the low’s jet stream is progged to weaken and dissipate, as its passage shifts winds from the southwest to the northeast by Saturday morning.

At the 500mb level, the low is much more noticeably cut off from the rest of the trough, leaving a rather uniform area of southwest flow all the way from western TX into the upper Atlantic coast. Vorticity on either side of the trough looks to collide over MO overnight, before quickly exiting the region as the low shifts southeast, and this places the forecast area in a col point for pressure for a large portion of the weekend, before ridging out of the southwest finally moves in.

At the 700mb level, dry air pushing in from Canada is quickly making its’ way through the MS River Valley, with a widening axis between Lake Erie and CO, whilst the cutoff low over OK continues to carry its’ associated moisture and slowly continues to draw in more from the Gulf. The last bit of moisture at the 700mb layer that gave us clouds earlier today has already dissipated, and MO looks to remain dried out for the rest of the period, with weak WAA associated with the ridge intermittently transiting through the forecast area. The only feature of note is a shortwave trough forecast to sweep through MO by late Sunday night, bringing a mix of enhanced WAA and CAA.

The 850mb level is much of the same story, with the ridge more prominent over the forecast area, though the aforementioned shortwave could potentially carry some weak moisture content with it, albeit much too less for any significant cloud cover.

At the surface, winds are light and variable throughout most of the forecast period, save for some solenoid formation Sunday night, signaling an increase in westerly winds. With the surface high over the Four Corners region migrating directly over the forecast area for the entire period, this pattern will most likely cause significant amounts of uneventful weather for us, aside from some weak, patchy cloud cover over parts of MO Saturday morning.

 GEFS plumes show absolutely no chance of precip during our forecast period, SREF plumes came up with the same conclusion, and the NBM says much of the same. Temperatures are near seasonal, with a gentle warming trend into the weekend, and Sunday looks to be a few degrees above climo.

 -Thomas, Sausen