Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Decreasing clouds. High: 63
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 36
Tuesday: Sunny. High 63
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 41
Wednesday: Sunny: High: 58
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Discussion:
Hold on to your hats! Monday will be a very windy day with gusts into the 50 MPH range. Tie down any loose furniture because it could blow away with the wind. The rest of the week looks to be calm with above average temperatures.
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Forecasters: Herion, Jones
Date Issued: 2/24/2023 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Overall the beginning part of the week will be quiet with pleasant temperatures reaching into the mid-60s for high due to southerly winds driving up the warm air. Today both the GFS20 and NAM12 were in good agreement with placements of front but the GFS20 was chosen for its track record with moderate weather.
Today on the 250mb map the upper level jet and the subtropic jet appear to be coupling as a high ridge covers the Midwest. Divergence aloft is relatively non-existent contributing to the quiet conditions at the lower levels. At 500mb the LPS that was over the CWA is being pushed off to the Northeast leaving behind zonal flow that will remain for the rest of this forecast. 700mb remains quiet as well with no moisture entering the area. The 850mb has high humidity into the afternoon today but with none of the other components things will stay dry this afternoon. At the surface there are strong southerly winds blowing from 20-30kt pushing the warm air from the south giving the CWA a high of 63.
Tuesday the jet streak move over mid Missouri at 18:00z for the remainder of the forecast. Winds aloft will be around 160kt. At 500mb and 700mb much remains the same with strong zonal flow and little vorticity. Off to the SW over Nevada there is a start of a building troup which will bring changes in the forecast towards the end of week. Relative humidity remains low but a strong band of WAA hits the CWA at 18:00z Tuesday. 850mb is quiet with all humidity gone by Tuesday, a weak HPS replaces the LPS that will be moved out completely by 03:00Z Tuesday. Surface winds start westerly on Tuesday but transition clockwise into southerly winds by 18:00Z. These winds will drive warm southern temperatures into the area giving us another day in the low 60s.
Wednesday looks to be a repeat of Tuesday with the jet streak continuing to stay over the CWA. Zonal flow is continued to be seen at the 500mb keeping things quiet. The 700mb map shows a LPS moving to the North of Missouri pushing down bring CAA around 18:00. 850mb doesn't show any humidity entering the area for the remainder of the forecast shift. At the surface a LPS covers the area and winds will shift from the south to the North around 15:00z. Temperatures will be cooler as a result with a high of 58.
Future forecaster should pay close attention to the deep trough building to the SW which is looking the bring cooler temperatures and some possible precipitation.
- Jones
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