Wednesday, April 3, 2019

        Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight- Cloudy, rain beginning late. Low: 49-52.

Thursday- Light to moderate rain. High: 58-62.

  Thursday Night- Rain moves out, mostly cloudy. Low: 48-52.

Friday- Partly cloudy. High: 60-64. 

 Saturday- Mostly cloudy. High: 68-72. 

Thanks to for the icons!


Gathering clouds this evening will be the setup for a soggy wake up tomorrow morning. Umbrellas and rain gear will be necessary Thursday as a storm system treks through central Missouri. Rainfall could total as much as an inch of rain creating more problems for previously soaked, flood prone areas. Caution should be taken for low lying areas tomorrow as flooding could become an issue with prolonged rainfall expected. A cloudy, wet day will keep temperatures in the 50's for daytime highs. Rain will end Thursday night as the cold front passes through Columbia. Overnight lows will only dip to around 50. A fast moving weather pattern will help to clear out the effects of Thursdays storm system. A mostly cloudy day is in store for Friday as temperatures will rebound into the 60's. No rain is expected for those heading to St. Louis for the rescheduled Cardinals home opener. After a colder night with lows in the upper 40's the weather will transition again into Saturday as clouds overtake central Missouri in anticipation of the next storm system that will impact the Midwest late Saturday night. Afternoon temperatures Saturday will climb into the 70's as a warm front glides north ahead of the oncoming system.

Forecasters: Bongard, and Sumrall
Issued: 2:48 p.m., 3 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

An active weather pattern will influence Missouri through the weekend. The high pressure system that has impacted mid Missouri will slowly move out of the region. Behind it is a low pressure system that will move into the area from the four corners region Thursday. This system will bring wide spread showers into the area due to synoptic scale forcing paired with warm air advection at the 850 mb level. Some thunderstorms are possible with this system but the likelihood of them being severe is minimal due to convection being suppressed by limited instability seen by low CAPE values. A low level jet is present and will be strongest around the time precipitation is expected to begin, at 3z Thursday morning. Showers will linger through most of the day due to ample moisture being present in all levels of the atmosphere. This cold front will keep the temperatures slightly cooler than what we have experienced previously.
As the cold front moves out of the area a high pressure system will move in right behind it. This will provide some drier air that will help some sunshine return to the forecast of Friday. Winds will once again shift to out of the south, providing more warm air advection. The atmosphere will continue to dry throughout most of the day Saturday although clouds will still be present ahead of another low pressure system that will move in late Saturday night. A strong low level jet will move into the area with the cold front Saturday night. This system will bring more rain into the area with possible strong storms. 

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