Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Tonight - Overcast with probable rain showers. Low: 50-54.

Wednesday  Morning - Cloudy with possible light rain showers. High: 66-70.

Wednesday Night Cloudy. Low: 50-54.

Thursday - Partly cloudy. High: 72-76.

Friday  - Partly cloudy. High: 70-74.

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We have been covered in overcast for most of the day which allowed cooler temperatures to dominate the area, but the atmosphere has been too dry to support any precipitation which has been a trend for the start of this week. However, rain start to push in from the southwest, following parallel to the I-44 corridor, going into the late afternoon and evening hours. The dry atmosphere trend may continue into the later part of the week, leaving confidence to see rain low because of the possible dryness of the atmosphere. These probability to see some rain showers continue through Wednesday night and then will start to clear out for Thursday, leaving us partly sunny and then clear into Friday which will help us warm up into the weekend.
Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown and Hirsch

Issued: 5:00 p.m.; 22 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The main focus for this forecast period will be whether or not Columbia will see any precipitation between tonight and Thursday morning.  There is no concern for severe weather during this forecast shift.  This shift went with the GFS from guidance of the WPC suggesting not to use the 23/12Z NAM. 

2054Z METAR observations recorded overcast skies at 2100ft with rain falling at KCOU and light winds out of the west.  Late afternoon showers are possible this afternoon and on through early this evening, while 12Z Skew Ts does suggest moisture from 300mb to 760mb with a dry layer between 760 and the surface, there is -5 omega of lift between the 500 and 700mb levels suggesting that the column could fill for a short amount of time.  If there is any rain that would fall around the area late afternoon to early evening this evening it would be brief. 

A low pressure system was located over central Oklahoma this morning, overnight tonight that same system will be passing the area just to our south, with the low center located just South of Jefferson City.    A veering wind profile up the column and seventy percent RH filling in form Southwest to Northeast, clouds will persist for the overnight hours for Columbia.  This system is in it's early life cycle is unorganized so any rain that falls is going to be scattered.

 Wednesday brings slightly warmer temperatures around the area.  Southwesterly flow continues in the jetstream at 250mb but very little divergence aloft suggests very little lifting at the surface.  There is low level moisture in the atmosphere from about 780mb to the surface but lack of a lifting mechanism has confidence low for rain chances during the day tomorrow after mid morning.  A dry layer just above the surface to about 900mb suggests a low cloud deck for most of the day tomorrow.  We begin to clear out Wednesday night as our winds shift to the north as the area will be on the backside of the low pressure system passes off to our east.  The area will be behind a cold front but will not completely effected by it, just northerly winds but a low cloud deck and those northerly winds will only keep our high temperatures in the mid 60s. 

Low cloud deck is expected Thursday for part of the day.  Low level moisture sticks around during the day due to another low pressure system located in central Arkansas.  That system will pass to our south and move east into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.  Another weak cold front will sweep through the area from our northwest by 18Z Thursday.  Once the cold front passes though the forecast area, northerly winds and clearing skies will finally return Thursday evening the area begins to enter the eastern side of a high pressure system.  Confidence on any precipitation falling associated with the cold front passing through Thursday afternoon is low.  Friday high pressure really fills in with dry air throughout the column and sunny skies.  Friday will definitely be the best day of the week weather wise. 

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