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Another above average day temperature wise here in mid-Missouri with high's reaching into the upper 70's and plenty of sunshine for the majority of the day. Clouds will being to move into the area as a cold front makes its way into the area late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening starting after dark. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe, with high winds and hail being the primary threat. Storms will end mid morning on Thursday as the cold front will be through the area. After the front passes it will leave behind cooler temperatures and cloudy skies. These cooler temperatures will rebound nicely on Friday as we will see high in the 60's as cloud cover begins to move out of the area. This sets us up for a ideal weekend with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the 70's.
Forecasters: Bongard and Sumrall
Issued: 2:47 p.m., 17 April 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A well amplified upper level trough will sweep into the central CONUS today and tonight bringing with it the next in a season long series of frontal systems. Vorticity and low level moisture will advect into central Missouri late this evening on the strength of stacked southwesterly flow in the profile. Scattered precipitation across the region today will resolve into a strong line of showers and thunderstorms that will develop over central Kansas this afternoon and slowly push through western and central Missouri this evening and tonight. This line of convective activity will be in response to a cold front being dragged through the area providing sufficient forcing to tap into the unstable atmosphere along and ahead of the boundary containing CAPE values ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg according to model sounding data. The SPC does place a moderate risk for severe weather over Columbia with more enhanced chances over Oklahoma and central Texas this evening. Timing of storms over central Missouri may inhibit the severe potential of these storms due to a night time ETA and the loss of heating. That being said SPC does give 2% likelihood for tornadoes with 5% just west of the forecast area. Wind and hail percentages are also in the moderate range so the potential for strong thunderstorm activity is certainly valid and should be monitored closely. This setup is reminiscent of the thunderstorm activity that took place on 3/7/17.
The bulk of precipitation with this system will fall between 03Z and 12Z Thursday with model data generally going with somewhere between 0.75 and 1 inch of accumulation for Columbia. The cold front will sweep through central Missouri after midnight eradicating moisture values overhead and swinging low level winds quickly around to the northwest. Precipitation chances dwindle considerably after 12Z as a post frontal weather regime entrenches itself over the region for the remainder of the day Thursday. The upper level trough will slowly push its well amplified axis into western Missouri by 06Z Friday continuing to provide amply vorticity values across Missouri. With precious little moisture behind the frontal boundary Thursday will only offer a slight chance of precipitation with high temperatures Thursday afternoon only reaching the upper 50's (maybe 60F) and lows Thursday night into Friday falling back into the upper 40's.
Friday will be a transitional day for the region as the western flank of the upper level trough forces a strong northerly flow over central Missouri. This will advect colder drier air into the area providing for a sunny yet seasonally cool Friday afternoon. High pressure will slowly makes its way into the Midwest as the previous system pushes further east. Precipitation chances Friday will be absent as clouds clear out and temperatures rebound into the low 60's. Friday night into Saturday will be the coldest night of the week with an overnight low somewhere near 40F. High pressure centered over eastern Kansas will slip south of the region Saturday morning and provide southwesterly flow for the Midwest along its western flank. This will give Columbia a "Chamber of Commerce" Saturday with sunny skies and high temperatures into the 70's Saturday afternoon with no chance for precipitation.