Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Tonight - Partly cloudy skies. Low: 50-54

Wednesday - Mostly sunny and breezy. High: 79-83

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 63-67

Thursday - Partly Sunny Skies. Windy. High: 70-74 

Friday - Partly Sunny. High: 50-54

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We are staying well above average with our temperatures here in mid-Missouri for our Tuesday and we can expect to see that trend stick around as we make our way through the week. One thing that will help us stay warm is the clouds that will roll in during the evening and overnight hours ahead of our next low pressure system. Those will act as a sort of blanket to trap the heat from the day into the lower part of the atmosphere, allowing us to reach high temperatures tomorrow around 80 degrees. As this next low pressure system approaches, winds will start to pick up and keep us breezy for most of the week with winds coming out of the south, also aiding in the warmer temperatures. This system is strong coming off the Rockies and into the Plains and this will be why winds are so strong over the next few days with gusts reaching 30-45 mph. Thursday is looking to stay dry as the system passes. There is possibility of a stray shower or a rumble of thunder but the confidence of this is very low. Temperatures will start to trend lower, even below the seasonal average, as we situate ourselves at the end of the week as we enter into the colder sector of the low pressure system after it pushes through and moves off to the east. 
Forecasters: Azzara, Munley and Brown 
Issued: 5:00 p.m., 9 April 2019 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

The main points of interest during this forecast peroid is the possibilities of rain, the possibility of high winds for the next couple days and sky conditions during the peroid.  The guidence of the WPC suggests a general model blend with minimal weighted NAM, so went prodominately 12Z GFS.  Tonight we have clouds that will fill into the area with the column moistening up from 500mb to about 250mb and winds changing from southeasterly to a southery component aid WAA. 

Winds begin to ramp up Wednesday along with warmer temperatures.  The LLJ will kick up during the day with speeds reaching 35-40kts and mixing down to the surface.  On throughout the day a warm front will be approaching us from our southwest and the wind profile continue to be southerly in the lower levels and on up veers to West/Southwesterly. With the warm front coming through, the wind profile, and mostly sunny skies will aid for above average temperatures.  The gusty winds and warm front are associated with the strong cyclone that will be interacting with on Thursday.  Overnight Wednesday, clouds and strong winds continue as the LLJ continues to stay strong reaaching upwards of 55kts and sufficient moisture in GFS soundings from 500-200mb, with that it is going to be hard to left any of the radiation heating from the day escape the atmosphere keeping overnight lows in the mid 60s.

With the track of this cyclone, lack of moisture in GFS soundings and model output, we will be dealing with howling winds again Thursday.  The current track of this strong cyclone has it passing off to our west in Northwest Missouri, being on the Eastern side of this strong cyclone, winds will be out of the South.  The Southerly LLJ is to reach upwards of 45-55kts, mixing down to the surface making it another day of gusty warm winds.  Partly snnyskies are suggested throughout the day as the area is in the dry slot of the cyclone.  The area will remain in the warm sector for most of the day Thursday but a cold front will sweep through the area during the afternoon around 20Z.  Generally with how this setup is there would be talk of showers and potential strong thunderstorms but with lack of moisture and a capped atomsphere on forecast soundings, that does not seem to be the case.  Friday winds finally begin to die down as the max stage strong cyclone begins to move away to the North and East.  The cold FROPA from Thursday afternoon has our temperatures being below average but return to a sunny and clear skies.  The forecast area returns to more seasonable conditions over the weekend but future shifts will tough on that later.

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