Thursday, April 4, 2019

Tonight - Rain moves out, mostly cloudy. Low: 48-52.

Friday- Partly cloudy. High: 62-66. 


 Friday Night -  Partly cloudy. Low 47-51

 Saturday- Cloudy with rain coming later in the evening. High: 70-74. 

Sunday -  Cloudy with rain majority of the day. High 70-74 

Thanks to for the icons!

After getting our boots wet through this Thursday, we get our first real taste of spring showers with rain coming later this weekend. Rain will be moved out by later this evening giving us a good chance to begin warming back up for the days ahead. With the rain gone and temps rising, there will be a good chance of patchy fog Friday morning. After the fog clearing out however, temps will be on the rise again as minimal cloud cover lies overhead through Friday. Saturday keeps true to Friday with a gradual buildup of clouds with a good chance for the highest temp seen all year. Rain will return Saturday evening however and continue through the night. Sunday keeps the rain picking up in the early AM hours with a slight chance for thunderstorms. 

Forecasters: Bongard, Doll, and Myers
Issued: 4:32 p.m., 4 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

After a wet Thursday rain will continue to fall through tonight. Vorticity levels at the 500mb level stay prominent through this evening hovering around 20 m/s but moving out shortly after bringing the steady rain to an abrupt end. Overall our rain totals for Thursday will be between half an inch to three quarters of an inch with .05 - .15 of an inch coming now until the rain stops at around 7:00PM CST. Looking at model sounding comparisons, both GFS and NAM agree in terms of timing of the saturated levels. Early tomorrow morning the sounding shows the surface levels being saturated bringing a very good chance of patchy fog especially with the temps warming quickly. At 250mb the overall flow is prominently zonal with a trough that influenced this rain into central Missouri moving out tonight. This will be followed shortly by a shallow ridge bringing a high pressure system at the 925mb level through tomorrow.Missouri has had

Friday brings dryer levels through the mid to lower atmosphere when looking at the GFS soundings. However the upper levels of the atmosphere from 400mb-250mb saturates, bringing in clouds. Flow at the 500mb level shows a shallow thickness keeping the atmosphere very stable and calm through the day. A high pressure system in the lower atmosphere develops over southern Missouri and moves through Columbia Friday night that ushers in southerly winds giving even warmer temps than experienced earlier this week. 

At the 250mb level, the ridge that was experienced the previous evening makes its way through central Missouri mid-afternoon. Looking at the GFS model, the backside of the ridge deepens, creating an incoming trough through the later evcning. Flow at the 500mb level in GFS follows suit to that of the NAM model showing a deepening backside ridge as well with the thickness increasing. This gives Missouri stronger winds from the south, giving a good chance to reach the warmest temp experienced all year but a good amount of convection with small amounts of rain. Looking at the model sounding comparisons, central Missouri will be dry at the lower levels of the atmosphere but saturated at the mid-upper levels. The lower levels do become saturated quickly later in the evening however. GFS has a bigger dry layer at the lower levels beginning Saturday night but shows more lift in terms of the cape values compared to that of the NAM. Rain totals however stay minimal from .05-.25 inches Saturday night.

Continuing from the rain received Saturday night, Sunday gives a break in the pMissouri has had recipitation until picking back up early in the morning. The 250mb flow is zonal with a shortwave trough coming through central Missouri in the early morning on the GFS model. This trough extends pretty deep in the atmosphere keeping things relatively unstable. Looking at values on the GFS model sounding, cape reaches around 1200 J/Kg and a K index of 29 at noon. Vorticity values hover around 24 m/s as well, giving similar values to that of the rain received Thursday night. Looking at these forecasted values, the chances for storm conditions are very minimal. Rain for Sunday will pick back up very early Sunday morning and die out late Sunday night giving a total amount of precipitation between .5-1.5 inches



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