Friday, April 19, 2019

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 38 - 42.

Saturday -  Sunny. High 68 - 72.

Saturday Night - Mostly clear. Low 48 - 52.

Sunday - Mostly sunny. Some clouds move in the evening. High: 78 - 82.

Monday - Becoming mostly sunny after clouds move out in the morning. High: 76 - 80.

Thanks to for the icons!

Today we had a full moon this morning right before sunrise. So tonight with clear skies we will have abundant amount of bright moonlight. This Easter weekend will be perfect for outdoor family get together and kids egg hunts. This is due to dry, sunny, and warm conditions. The clouds that move in Sunday evening will just leave skies partly cloudy overnight. These clouds should clear out Monday morning allowing for another warm and sunny day.

Forecasters: Johnston, Rojas, and Summall.
Issued: 4:00 p.m.; 19 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The Weather Prediction Center has slightly above average confidence in suggesting a general model blend with more emphasis put toward the GFS and ECMWF. We used the GFS for our forecasting due to the GFS being more accessible, then the ECMWF.

The upper level trough that was responsible for all the rain couple days ago is now leaving the CONUS. The characteristic conditions such as warm, dry and clear skies behind that low pressure system will prevail during the weekend and will dominate our weather. By late tonight the upper level low center will be over Tennessee, locating Missouri below the left side of the low along with the cold advection. Moreover, the clouds associated with the departing low will be removed gradually leaving us clear skies that will support the radiational cooling. Currently on visible satellite you can see clear skies over northern and western Missouri, while the clouds are still drifting out of the eastern and southern parts of our state. The lows tonight will be colder than Thursday night because of the aforementioned. At 700 mb-height the lowest relative humidity area extends from western Michigan to Texas, right behind the upper level low. At surface a high pressure system start to be formed.

The upper level ridge axis will be near to the Great Plains by Saturday moving toward us along the day. The flow will be more zonal at 500 mb-height and the entire column will remain pretty dry during Saturday. There will be also ridge at surface and winds shifting from north to west by Saturday at surface too. As the upper level ridge moves eastward, its axis will be over Missouri by Sunday morning. A dominantly southerly flow at surface will be responsible for the warm advection that day, dry conditions at surface and aloft will keep the sky clear, along with the SREF plume trending warming we decided to increase the high temperature from the previous forecast period to the upper 70s and low 80s.

We expect high clouds to move in Sunday evening and last though Monday morning. This is due to the sounding at 21Z on Sunday showing saturation between 275 mb and 400 mb. Atmosphere aloft slowly dries out to reach zero saturation at the Monday 09Z sounding. Soundings show that we stay dry for the rest of our forecast. The southerly flow will persist on Monday allowing warm temperatures to continue for Monday. Along with soundings showing stronger winds around 30 kts between 850 mb and 500 mb in the morning which would explain the clearing out of high clouds.