Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Low: 63-67

Thursday - Partly Sunny Skies. Windy. High: 70-74

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 34-36

Friday - Partly Sunny Skies. Breezy. High: 50-44 

Saturday - Partly Sunny. High: 52-56

Thanks to for the icons!
Mid-Missouri is experiencing another beautiful spring day today. A warm front has moved through the area and now resides at the Iowa-Missouri boarder. Winds are increasing throughout the day ahead of a cold front that is currently out in the plains and will impact our area late tomorrow afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase ahead of the system tonight that will help keep our low temperatures for the night relatively warm. As we move into tomorrow we will see clouds begin to decrease and partly sunny skies will linger throughout the rest of the forecast period. Breezy conditions will also be the theme for the rest of the forecast period. After tomorrows pleasant temperatures we will experience a cooling period that will remain through the weekend, with highs only reaching into the mid 50's. This will be due to the cold front that is set to impact mid-Missouri Thursday night. Cooler, dry air will move into the area behind this cold front.
Forecasters: Bongard and Sumrall
Issued: 2:56 p.m., 10 April 2019 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
Southwesterly flow aloft will slide into the forecast area this evening and overnight as the ridging currently overhead will get propelled eastward in response to a vigorous trough digging southeastward into the Plains from the Pacific Northwest. High values of vorticity over eastern Colorado and western Kansas will slowly advect eastward towards the Midwest tonight. These high vorticity values are in association with a low pressure system strengthening rapidly as it ejects off the Front Range with numerous closed isobars developing around the circulation. This will enhance the LLJ found at 850 mb with wind speeds overnight as high as 80 knots according to NAM model solutions. The southwestern orientation of the LLJ will help to develop a very pronounced dry slot which will severely hamper moisture advection into the Midwest ahead of the approaching system. The strength of this system is revealed by the strong warm front currently draped over the Missouri-Iowa border providing high temperatures this afternoon in low 80s. Continued strong low level southerlies and diurnal cooling will only drop temperatures into the low 60's.

Gusty winds will be the predominant weather feature for Thursday as the tightly packed pressure gradient of the low pressure system drifts over central Missouri. The low itself will actually scoot to the northwest of the state avoiding any meaningful impacts on the forecast area outside of the aforementioned gusty winds. Winds will be southerly through mid afternoon at values of 25-30 knots with higher gusts possible. Temperatures will climb quickly into the mid to upper 70's with partly cloudy skies thanks to the dry slot moving west to east across the Midwest as the LLJ within the low pressure system propagates across the area. This will keep Columbia dry with only a low chance for precipitation during the daylight hours Thursday. NAM model soundings offer a small chance of precipitation as the mid levels moisten up around the time of cold fropa Thursday night. A surface dry layer will likely diminish expectations on precipitation though.

Fropa takes place between 00Z and 06Z Friday with a rapid cool down overnight Thursday into Friday as lows tumble into the upper 30's. Cooler drier air will advect into the Midwest setting up the coldest day of the week Friday with highs only reaching the 50's despite a partly cloudy day. Zonal flow will stack the profile Friday as the trough and associated low pressure system to the north continue a poleward migration. A ridge (of sorts) will develop briefly over the southeastern CONUS with its westward upstream flow over the southern Plains. This will help to create southerly flow aloft overnight Friday night as the pattern switches quickly back to a meridional nature ahead of a rapidly strengthening trough over the Four Corners region. Low level winds will remain post frontal cooling the area back into the 30's Friday night into Saturday. The trough will house our next weather maker scheduled to impact Missouri over the weekend. This system will take a more southerly route than the previous storm placing the forecast area in a prime location for cloud cover Saturday and precipitation chances Saturday night into Sunday.

No comments:

Post a Comment