Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Clear skies  Low: 10-14

 
Saturday - Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in late afternoon. High: 32-36

Saturday night - Mostly Cloudy Low: 25-29

Sunday - Snow changing to winter mix High 30-34

Monday -  Morning winter mix changing to rain High: 36-40

 

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Discussion:  

Another extremely cold night, before we warm up. The lack of cloud cover tonight into tomorrow morning will prevent warmer temperatures from being caught near the surface. Saturday looks to be a not so pleasant sunny day due to the cold high temperatures. The coming of warm and moist air during the afternoon will support the cloud formation. Finally, Sunday conditions will bring some different type of precipitation, but the precipitation type on Sunday and Monday will depend on our temperatures warming near freezing.

 

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Forecasters: Johnston,Rojas, Sumrall & Hirsch

Issued: 4:46 p.m., February 8, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The current partly cloudy skies will clear over night as the high pressure system will remain over the region until Saturday morning.

The situation over the area based on GFS shows a shift in the Northwesterly winds to more southwesterly flow at 12Z on Saturday. That WAA is a result of the short wave development in the upper level which will drag sufficient moisture to the middle level, as the lower level remain dry at 18Z on Saturday. That is when some cloudiness will start to appear. The column will moist gradually until enough vertical velocity appears in the lower level (-8ubar/s) at 9Z on Sunday (3:00 am CST) and the 09Z GFS sounding supports as well. It moistens all the way to the surface starting at 12Z and with the temperature being below freezing, precip is expected to start as snow. A warm nose is present at the 15Z indicating a possiblity of wintery mix. The persistent southerly flow will support that veering aloft toward Monday morning where similar conditions are recognized. 
Precipitation type fo Sunday into Monday will vary between rain or winter mix due the the GFS soundings surface temperatures staying near freezing or just above from 21Z to 18Z Monday. What precip we get will depend on the location of the 540 line. The GFS keeps us just south of the line, leading to why we leaned towards a mix, before eventually warming up to a change over to rain.  

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight -Decreasing clouds and frigid cold.  Low: 8-12

Friday- Sunny but cold. High: 21-25

 

Friday night - Clouds clearing. Low: 18-12

Saturday - Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by sunset. High: 32-36

Sunday- Cloudy with chance for snow showers and wintry mix. High: 30-34

 

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Discussion:  

An active night including freezing rain, freezing fog, and thunderstorms across mid Missouri has given way to an icy, cloudy Thursday with gusty winds and plummeting temperatures. These weather features are all thanks to a cold front passing through the area Thursday. While cloud cover will clear out this evening temperatures will continue to drop into the single digits for overnight lows. Friday morning will greet us with sunny skies and very cold temperatures. The overnight temps will aid in potentially making road surfaces slick so caution is advised for the morning commute into work/school. Temperatures will rebound slightly into the low 20's during the afternoon before returning back to the single digits for yet another cold night. High pressure over the central Plains will lend to a sunny, slightly warmer Saturday. The quiet weather will be short lived however as cloud cover will increase Saturday evening ahead of a developing weather system to the regions west. The cloud cover and southerly winds will help to keep low temperatures Saturday night in the upper 20's. Sunday holds the possibility for another round of winter weather as this system treks over the Midwest. Right now, accumulations of snow are low at around half an inch with a potential for some icing. Afternoon highs will climb again into the low 30's Sunday afternoon.

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Forecasters: Bongard & Hirsch

Issued: 2:46 p.m., February 7, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Surface winds over the area have veered around to the west northwest as a cold front blasts through the region today. Aloft, a southwesterly oriented 170+ knot jet streak will drape itself over southeastern Missouri by 06Z Friday. Precipitation chances will come to an end this afternoon as the cold fropa clears out moisture knocking down PWAT values and clearing skies overhead. Strong cold air advection and lack of cloud cover insulation will drop temperatures into the single digits.

A surface high pressure system will develop over the Panhandles by 06Z tonight and will be responsible for the sunny skies Friday. Cold air advection will continue as the region finds itself in a post frontal regime for the majority of the day. The high pressure system will aid northerly winds as mid Missouri finds itself in the high pressure systems eastern flank for the rest of Friday and Friday evening. This will help to keep temperatures modestly cold in the low 20's Friday afternoon before plunging low temperatures Friday night back into the single digits.

Upper level charts promote a zonal flow over the region for the vast majority of the weekend. The high pressure center will traverse Missouri early Saturday morning and flip low level winds around to the south as we wake up Saturday morning. This will serve to warm temperatures Saturday into the 30's and steer some Gulf moisture northward into the Midwest by days end. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday afternoon as this moisture enters the region from the southwest. The Gulf moisture will be the catalyst for potential winter weather Sunday as a shortwave ejects off the Front Range and a low pressure system develops to the west over Kansas Saturday night. Models are in general agreement that precipitation in the form of freezing rain and scattered showers will form over the region Sunday morning around 15Z as the shortwave propagating across Missouri interacts with some of this moisture. SREF and GEFS plumes agree with NAM & GFS accumulation predictions of less than 0.5 inches of snowfall over Columbia with better chances for freezing rain accumulations to the east and south of the area through Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs Sunday will rise again into the 30's. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Weather Advisory through 12pm Thursday

Tonight -Cloudy. Freezing rain mix likely. Low: 32-36

Thursday- Clouds persist. Freezing rain/snow showers ending by mid day. High: 22-26

 
Thursday night - Clouds clearing. Low:12-16

Friday - Mostly sunny. High: 17-21

Saturday- Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 30-34
 

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Discussion:  

The potential for freezing rain continues to grip central Missouri as the freezing line will hover around the area overnight. Look for a slow changeover from rain to freezing rain mixed in with snow showers as we wake up Thursday morning. This could result in possible ice accumulation for the area and caution should be taken for the Thursday morning commute to work/school. Precipitation will last through the mid day hours when a powerful cold front sweeps through the area. Bundle up Thursday morning as our highest temperatures will occur in the early morning hours with falling temperatures throughout the day. Temps in the afternoon will fall into the low to mid 20's. Clouds will clear out of the area late Thursday evening with frigid lows in the teens behind the cold front. Look for a sunny and dry but cold day Friday with temperatures only rebounding into the low 20's. After another cold night Friday southerly winds will help raise temperatures into the 30's on a mostly sunny Saturday with clouds increasing from the west to east in the late afternoon hours ahead of a late weekend weather maker for Columbia, MO. 

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Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall and Hirsch
Issued: 2:46 p.m., February 6, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

A very strong upper level jet max will influence the majority of Missouri throughout the day claiming responsibility for the wild weather we will experience throughout the state. Ample moisture is present through all levels in the atmosphere. This strong jet will bring a variety of weather to Missouri as a warm front moves through the area today and a cold front moves through tomorrow morning. In western Missouri, there will be freezing rain and ice, while to the south there will be rain and thunderstorms. GFS has mid-Missouri right on the edge of the freezing line, but expects mainly rain for the area. HRRR and NAM have more freezing rain for mid-Missouri. GFS and HRRR tend to agree that the timing of the precipitation will be late tonight into the overnight hours. While NAM has periodic precipitation throughout the day. Temperatures will hover right around freezing, making it difficult to predict exactly what form of precipitation we will see.

There is slight warm air advection at the 850mb level, but low cloud cover is preventing this from warming our surface temperatures. There is also some latent heat release from rainfall freezing on contact to exposed surfaces over night that slightly warms temperatures. If the freezing line off to the northwest moves just slightly southeast then we can expect more accumulation of freezing rain. At this time it is likely mid-Missouri will experience a mix of rain and freezing rain, with more freezing rain north of I-70 overnight, then transition back to a freezing rain/snow shower mix tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

A cold front moves through mid morning making our high temperatures for the day occur in the early morning hours and steadily decrease from 15z on. Clouds will begin to clear Thursday night as the air behind the low pressure system dries out. The clearing skies will aid the frigid temperatures we will experience Thursday night and into Friday. The sun makes its way back into the forecast Friday as the atmosphere remains dry. Although there will be ample sunshine, temperatures will remain bitterly cold throughout the day Friday due mainly to continued cold air advection behind the departing frontal system.

Saturday will start out clear, but moisture will slowly move into the atmosphere overhead again ahead of the next system that is set to impact mid- Missouri Sunday. This will lead to increasing clouds Saturday afternoon, but temperatures will rebound back up to around freezing.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight -Cloudy. Freezing rain possible. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Clouds persist. Chance of rain. High: 44-48

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Drizzle possible. Low: 33-37

Thursday - Clouds and drizzle possible in the morning. High: 36-41

Friday- Clear skies. High: 22-26
 

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Discussion:  

The chance of freezing precipitation is back for Columbia as chances of freezing rain come into the picture tonight along with little temperature change. Wednesday temperatures warm into mid to upper 40s with rain throughout the day but subsiding for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Thursday, low clouds and drizzle will give way later in the morning into early afternoon, clearing out due to the next cold front that moves through the area. Colder temperatures return to the forecast for Friday but sunny skies do as well to round out the work week.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., February 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The winter temperatures are settled back in after the cold front that came through the area yesterday. Warm air advection has been increasing throughout the day causing large amounts of cloud cover but the upper atmosphere was too dry and was not enough moisture to give us any precipitation this far into the day.

As we move into the afternoon and evening hours we start to see a few more layers of moisture develop in the upper atmosphere but we still have a waft of dry air at around 600 mb stretching to about 400 mb. By around 00Z we see that atmosphere become fully saturated, giving us a high potential for precipitation. At this time we will be above freezing, so this precipitation will be falling in the form of rain. There is convective potential for this system as it moves through the area, so a few rumbles of thunder is absolutely possible, however it will most likely stay to the south-central part of Missouri, due to their warmer temperatures. Our low for tonight will be in the mid- 30's, so we can not rule out the possibility of a little freezing rain if we dip close enough to freezing, but we should remain warm enough aloft to keep that freezing rain out of our area and mainly to the north. PWAT's are generally about an inch and a half, which is significant for this time of year. QPF's are around a quarter of an inch of rain with heavier pockets of rain during the overnight hours.

Another band of showers will come through Wednesday morning, the chance of freezing rain will diminish by this time because we will warm up into the mid-40's for Wednesday's high temperature. A surface low will make its way through the area overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday morning in the form of a cold front. Ahead of this cold front we could see some isolated thunderstorms as the potential CAPE values are a few hundred J/kg. The isolated storms will move out of the area by the morning on Thursday and the cold front will push through following those storms.

This will make our morning on Thursday pretty warm but our temperatures will descend as that cold front starts to quickly take over. This is where we start to see the potential for a wintry mix as we go through late morning on Thursday. We can expect to see a switch over from rain into a snow/sleet mix right before lunch time 18Z Thursday and then should push out of the area by early afternoon. There should not be much (if any) extra accumulation of ice/snow on the ground after this system pushes out for good. While strong storm potential is there for Thursday with a good amount of shear, there is not good consensus among the models for enough instability to produce severe storms. By the end of Thursday, there will be a large temperature difference from when we started the day.

Friday should clear up and we will finally get to see some sunshine but will be the coldest day of the week.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight -Cloudy. Freezing drizzle possible. Low: 26-30

Tuesday - Clouds remain. Freezing rain possible in the morning transitioning to rain after noon. High: 38-42

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain likely with thunder possible. Temperatures rising overnight. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Clouds persist. Drizzle possible in the morning. High: 52-56

Thursday- Clouds continue to persist with rain showers. High: 44-48
 

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Discussion: 
Columbia will pay for the beautiful weekend as persistent clouds and several chances for precipitation will likely occur. A cold front will pass through later today and the springlike temperatures will drop back down to near freezing. Monday night into Tuesday morning freezing drizzle is possible, but no accumulations or impacts are expected. Freezing drizzle will transition to rain by noon on Tuesday. Tuesday night will see steady showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. On Wednesday, drizzle lingers in the morning and grey skies persist throughout the day. Going into Thursday, we will see drizzle turning into rain showers during the morning.
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Forecasters: Danaher, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., February 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
This past weekend's tranquil weather will come to an end quickly this morning, with an active weather pattern taking shape for this week. Per WPC analysis, a cold front extended from near Kansas City to just northwest of Kirksville at 12Z. IR imagery from GOES-13 confirms this, with a sharp temperature gradient appearing in the vicinity of the front. Associated with this front is a large area of cloud cover, also confirmed by satellite imagery, which has already begun to spread over our area. With the passage of the cold front today, temperatures will drop sharply into the upper-30s by sunset. As for precipitation, this forecast does not anticipate anything during the day today due to very little divergence at 250-hPa, no lift in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and little moisture throughout the column (with the exception of the lowest 100 hPa).

Heading into the rest of the period, 06Z GFS shows a substantial 250-hPa jet exceeding 130 kts ramping up over the SW CONUS. As the jet propagates toward and then over Missouri, divergence aloft will increase. A large vort max will move toward our area, but it will not make it to Missouri before the end of this period. The bottom line is that there will be upper level support for precip beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through the end of the period. Therefore, what determines whether or not there will be precip is the moisture profile and lift. For tonight and Tuesday, moisture profiles from GFS SKEW-T's are not that impressive, with a substantial dry layer from 250 to 900 hPa during this time. Lift is practically non-existent as well. Because of this, both the GFS and SREF have no QPF tonight and Tuesday. Therefore, we are expecting low level cloud cover tonight and Tuesday and a low likelihood for light precip. However, it should be noted that the GFS has a very shallow cold layer near the surface from 06Z-15Z Tuesday morning, and some SREF members produce FZRA as the p-type, so there may be some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain if any precip does indeed fall.

By  00Z Wednesday, 250-hPa divergence strengthens. Skew-T's also show a thoroughly moist column with plenty of lift. QPF from both the GFS and SREF increase at this time. Also, there will be some instability present (~100 J/kg CAPE), so there may be some thunder, especially between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, we went with rain and some thunder through about 18Z Wednesday.

Temperatures will be difficult to pin down from 00Z Tuesday on. With SW flow continuing, near average temperatures can be expected Tuesday. With a warm front pushing through overnight Tuesday, temperatures will rise throughout the night, and lead to a warm Wednesday.

Due to the differences between the GFS and NAM for Thursday, we chose to lean more towards the GFS. The GFS sounding continues to show a backing wind profile as temperatures continue to stay cold throughout the day. Lift becomes very noticeable during the 15z run of the GFS which gives the potential for rain showers in the morning. Overall, it is still very unclear what will happen Thursday onward due to a large discrepancy in model solutions.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 



Monday - Cloudy. Temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 58-62.



 Monday Night -Cloudy. Freezing drizzle possible. Low: 26-30

Tuesday - Clouds remain. Freezing rain possible in the morning transitioning to rain after noon. High: 38-42

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain likely with thunder possible. Temperatures rising overnight. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Clouds persist. Drizzle possible in the morning. High: 52-56
 

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Discussion: 
Columbia will pay for the beautiful weekend this pat weekend with persistent clouds and several chances for precipitation. A cold front will pass through later today and the springlike temperatures will drop back down to near freezing. Monday night into Tuesday morning freezing drizzle is possible, but no accumulations or impacts are expected. Freezing drizzle will transition to rain by noon on Tuesday. Tuesday night will see steady showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Wednesday drizzle lingers in the morning and grey skies persist throughout the day.
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Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, and Hirsch
Issued: 10:00 a.m., February 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
This past weekend's tranquil weather will come to an end quickly this morning, with an active weather pattern taking shape for this week. Per WPC analysis, a cold front extended from near Kansas City to just northwest of Kirksville at 12Z. IR imagery from GOES-13 confirms this, with a sharp temperature gradient appearing in the vicinity of the front. Associated with this front is a large area of cloud cover, also confirmed by satellite imagery, which has already begun to spread over our area. With the passage of the cold front today, temperatures will drop sharply into the upper-30s by sunset. As for precipitation, this forecast does not anticipate anything during the day today due to very little divergence at 250-hPa, no lift in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and little moisture throughout the column (with the exception of the lowest 100 hPa).

Heading into the rest of the period, 06Z GFS shows a substantial 250-hPa jet exceeding 130 kts ramping up over the SW CONUS. As the jet propagates toward and then over Missouri, divergence aloft will increase. A large vort max will move toward our area, but it will not make it to Missouri before the end of this period. The bottom line is that there will be upper level support for precip beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through the end of the period. Therefore, what determines whether or not there will be precip is the moisture profile and lift. For tonight and Tuesday, moisture profiles from GFS SKEW-T's are not that impressive, with a substantial dry layer from 250 to 900 hPa during this time. Lift is practically non-existent as well. Because of this, both the GFS and SREF have no QPF tonight and Tuesday. Therefore, we are expecting low level cloud cover tonight and Tuesday and a low likelihood for light precip. However, it should be noted that the GFS has a very shallow cold layer near the surface from 06Z-15Z Tuesday morning, and some SREF members produce FZRA as the p-type, so there may be some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain if any precip does indeed fall.

By  00Z Wednesday, 250-hPa divergence strengthens. Skew-T's also show a thoroughly moist column with plenty of lift. QPF from both the GFS and SREF increase at this time. Also, there will be some instability present (~100 J/kg CAPE), so there may be some thunder, especially between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. Therefore, we went with rain and some thunder through about 18Z Wednesday.

Temperatures will be difficult to pin down from 00Z Tuesday on. With SW flow continuing, near average temperatures can be expected Tuesday. With a warm front pushing through overnight Tuesday, temperatures will rise throughout the night, and lead to a warm Wednesday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday Night - Mostly cloudy with morning fog. Low: 32-36.

Saturday -  Mostly cloudy. High: 54-58.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 42-46

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 60-64.

Monday - Partly sunny. High: 56-60.
 

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Discussion: 




The warm front that was stalled over us today will lift northward tonight increasing our southerly flow. This flow will help to increase the temperatures this weekend, reaching to the low and mid 60s on Sunday. More southerly winds will drag low level moisture to the area that will help the cloud development thought the weekend. Calm winds Saturday morning along with the extra moisture will support the fog formation this day. No precipitation is expected during the weekend until late Sunday night into early Monday morning. So go out an enjoy the warmer air, before colder air moves in middle of next week.
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Forecasters: Rojas, Johnston, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:58 p.m., February 1, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 


The following is based on the 12Z NAM/GFS blend model which has an average confidence for the Midwest and the plains, as in accordance with WPC. The flow at 250 mb behaves quasi-zonal, which is a break from the deep trough we had associated with the cold weather earlier this week. Warm FROPA is expected tonight which will increase our southerly flow. This flow in association with WAA will usher in warmer temperatures this weekend.

GFS 12Z cross sections for late today and Saturday agree with high values of lower level moisture, but not enough vertical motion, weak omega, will leave us cloudy. Additionally, the Skew-T at 03Z until 18Z in the lowest 100 mb on the 2nd shows 100% saturation for Saturday and calm southerly winds all morning creating fog. This moisture at surface starts to dry out at 18Z, moving out the fog and gradually decreasing the clouds in the afternoon.

Cloud increase late Sunday with precipitation chance Sunday night in to early Monday morning. This will be associated with a low pressure system that will pass to our north in Iowa. GFS shows ample amount of divergence and decent RH values. FROPA will occur Monday morning when winds shifts from the south to the northwest. The timing of the front will impact our temperatures for Monday so future forecasters need to keep an out on this.