Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  
Monday - Cloudy and windy with temperatures falling throughout the day. Afternoon High: 20-24.


 
Monday Night - Partial clearing in the evening. Windy. Low: 10-14.

Tuesday - Becoming cloudy with flurries possible in the afternoon. Windy. High: 20-24.


 
Tuesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Winds dying down overnight. Low: (-8) - (-4).

Wednesday - Becoming cloudy. High: 4-8. 
 

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Discussion: 
After somewhat of a reprieve from the arctic air this weekend, a return to brutally cold air is in store for the first half of this week. Precipitation associated with a passing cold front has ended, leaving clouds and gusty winds in its wake. Temperatures will fall sharply throughout the day today, bottoming out in the upper teens/low 20s by dusk. Clouds will stick around throughout the rest of the period, with some periods of partial clearing possible early Tuesday morning, then again late Tuesday night. Winds will also stay strong through Tuesday night. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring dangerous cold, so make sure to bundle up as you head to class or work!

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Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, and Hirsch
Issued: 10:00 a.m., January 28, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
Sanborn Field has already hit today's high temperature at an anomalous 4:14 a.m. Columbia has already seen evidence of FROPA with winds shifting from WSW to WNW as well as a big increase in wind speeds since sunrise. Went primarily with GFS as per WPC's general model blend with above average confidence. As the cold front sinks down to the south remnant moisture will exit the region with it, however a saturated layer persists below 700 hPa and clouds will remain throughout the day. Tuesday afternoon GFS Skew-Ts show a brief period of increased moisture and lift below 700 hPa, but a dew point depression of 5 degrees at the sfc. If precipitation makes it to the ground, it will most likely show itself in the form of brief flurries. Fortunately for Columbia, with the descending arctic air mass, extremely dry air will set up over the Midwest, so winter precipitation is not anticipated past Tuesday afternoon.

GFS soundings do hint at the possibility for partial clearing over night Tuesday night with winds at the sfc still blowing at 20-25 kts. The potential for partial clearing could result in greater radiational cooling and therefore Wednesday morning temperatures could be lower than models are anticipating.

LSX has placed Boone County under a wind advisory. Winds will continue to blow with substantial force and will continue to shift from the WNW to the NW as the sfc low centered over the Missouri-Iowa-Illinois border will propagate off to the northwest. The LLJ will pick up as well as 850 hPa winds also show a shift to the NW as the much talked about arctic air mass descends down from Canada. mid-Missouri will experience strong CAA until Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to bottom out at near record lows in the negative single digits. The strong winds associated with the descending vortex will are expected to make wind chills feel closer to -15 to -20 Tuesday night. Having trended higher for Wednesday, but will defer to later shifts to better narrow down the possibility for breaking record cold high temperatures.