Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Weather Advisory through 12pm Thursday

Tonight -Cloudy. Freezing rain mix likely. Low: 32-36

Thursday- Clouds persist. Freezing rain/snow showers ending by mid day. High: 22-26

 
Thursday night - Clouds clearing. Low:12-16

Friday - Mostly sunny. High: 17-21

Saturday- Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 30-34
 

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Discussion:  

The potential for freezing rain continues to grip central Missouri as the freezing line will hover around the area overnight. Look for a slow changeover from rain to freezing rain mixed in with snow showers as we wake up Thursday morning. This could result in possible ice accumulation for the area and caution should be taken for the Thursday morning commute to work/school. Precipitation will last through the mid day hours when a powerful cold front sweeps through the area. Bundle up Thursday morning as our highest temperatures will occur in the early morning hours with falling temperatures throughout the day. Temps in the afternoon will fall into the low to mid 20's. Clouds will clear out of the area late Thursday evening with frigid lows in the teens behind the cold front. Look for a sunny and dry but cold day Friday with temperatures only rebounding into the low 20's. After another cold night Friday southerly winds will help raise temperatures into the 30's on a mostly sunny Saturday with clouds increasing from the west to east in the late afternoon hours ahead of a late weekend weather maker for Columbia, MO. 

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Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall and Hirsch
Issued: 2:46 p.m., February 6, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

A very strong upper level jet max will influence the majority of Missouri throughout the day claiming responsibility for the wild weather we will experience throughout the state. Ample moisture is present through all levels in the atmosphere. This strong jet will bring a variety of weather to Missouri as a warm front moves through the area today and a cold front moves through tomorrow morning. In western Missouri, there will be freezing rain and ice, while to the south there will be rain and thunderstorms. GFS has mid-Missouri right on the edge of the freezing line, but expects mainly rain for the area. HRRR and NAM have more freezing rain for mid-Missouri. GFS and HRRR tend to agree that the timing of the precipitation will be late tonight into the overnight hours. While NAM has periodic precipitation throughout the day. Temperatures will hover right around freezing, making it difficult to predict exactly what form of precipitation we will see.

There is slight warm air advection at the 850mb level, but low cloud cover is preventing this from warming our surface temperatures. There is also some latent heat release from rainfall freezing on contact to exposed surfaces over night that slightly warms temperatures. If the freezing line off to the northwest moves just slightly southeast then we can expect more accumulation of freezing rain. At this time it is likely mid-Missouri will experience a mix of rain and freezing rain, with more freezing rain north of I-70 overnight, then transition back to a freezing rain/snow shower mix tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

A cold front moves through mid morning making our high temperatures for the day occur in the early morning hours and steadily decrease from 15z on. Clouds will begin to clear Thursday night as the air behind the low pressure system dries out. The clearing skies will aid the frigid temperatures we will experience Thursday night and into Friday. The sun makes its way back into the forecast Friday as the atmosphere remains dry. Although there will be ample sunshine, temperatures will remain bitterly cold throughout the day Friday due mainly to continued cold air advection behind the departing frontal system.

Saturday will start out clear, but moisture will slowly move into the atmosphere overhead again ahead of the next system that is set to impact mid- Missouri Sunday. This will lead to increasing clouds Saturday afternoon, but temperatures will rebound back up to around freezing.