Monday - Cloudy morning with rain. Sun comes out in the afternoon.
High: 70-74
Monday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 54-58
Tuesday - Partly sunny in the morning, with clouds and storms later.
High: 72-76
Tuesday Night - Cloudy with lingering thunderstorms and rain. Low: 48-52
Wednesday - Partly sunny and breezy. High: 60-64
Discussion:
The current rain affecting the area will likely stop by noon. This brief period of dry time
and southwesterly winds will allow for sunshine to help warm us up to the low 70s.
Tomorrow, we begin to see a low pressure system develop to our north.
Tuesday morning and afternoon, we remain south of the warm front and expect
temps to rise into the mid and upper 70s. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the area Tuesday evening. We expect thunderstorms to form along
and behind the front as it passes. These storms may produce strong winds and
small hail. Northerly winds behind the cold front and clouds will keep us much
cooler on Wednesday.
and southwesterly winds will allow for sunshine to help warm us up to the low 70s.
Tomorrow, we begin to see a low pressure system develop to our north.
Tuesday morning and afternoon, we remain south of the warm front and expect
temps to rise into the mid and upper 70s. The cold front associated with the low will
move through the area Tuesday evening. We expect thunderstorms to form along
and behind the front as it passes. These storms may produce strong winds and
small hail. Northerly winds behind the cold front and clouds will keep us much
cooler on Wednesday.
===========================================================================================
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued: 10:00am: April 27, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used for this forecast period as suggested by the WPC.
A shortwave trough is beginning to embed into the Great Plains and provide activity
for Mid-Missouri. Rain has been falling in Columbia this morning, picking up <0.15”
of QPF. Winds are shifting out of the southwest which will allow for moisture advection
to end very soon, which will dry us out and bring sunshine into the afternoon. The sun
will make or break our high temperature today as the more we get, the higher the temp
will end up being. As the shortwave trough amplifies, our attention turns to tomorrow
as a vertically stacked cyclone is forecasted to push across the upper Mississippi Valley.
A shortwave trough is beginning to embed into the Great Plains and provide activity
for Mid-Missouri. Rain has been falling in Columbia this morning, picking up <0.15”
of QPF. Winds are shifting out of the southwest which will allow for moisture advection
to end very soon, which will dry us out and bring sunshine into the afternoon. The sun
will make or break our high temperature today as the more we get, the higher the temp
will end up being. As the shortwave trough amplifies, our attention turns to tomorrow
as a vertically stacked cyclone is forecasted to push across the upper Mississippi Valley.
This low pressure system forms from the shortwave trough, closing itself off as it moves
across the Dakotas. From the ground up, this cyclone shows signs of detaching itself
from the general flow across the CONUS. The LLJ shows prominent signs of a warm
and cold front attached to this low that will ignite storms along its way. Winds shift out of
the south by tomorrow morning, funnelling moisture back into the central CONUS south
of the warm front. However, overcast skies will not form until closer to cold FROPA in the
afternoon/evening, allowing for sunshine to help warm us up and keep the dew point
temperature over 60 F. This will also make the high temperature tomorrow a little higher
than today’s.
across the Dakotas. From the ground up, this cyclone shows signs of detaching itself
from the general flow across the CONUS. The LLJ shows prominent signs of a warm
and cold front attached to this low that will ignite storms along its way. Winds shift out of
the south by tomorrow morning, funnelling moisture back into the central CONUS south
of the warm front. However, overcast skies will not form until closer to cold FROPA in the
afternoon/evening, allowing for sunshine to help warm us up and keep the dew point
temperature over 60 F. This will also make the high temperature tomorrow a little higher
than today’s.
Soundings ahead of the cold front show ample instability with SREF mean values at 2283
J/kg for MUCAPE, 1891 J/kg for MLCAPE, and 40 knots for EFFSHR. However, the most
concerning part of the soundings was that there is no cap forecasted. These thunderstorms
look to be non-supercellular, which makes the biggest threat to be straight-line winds and
maybe some small hail if the updraft can grow large enough. However, a few tornadic
spin-ups cannot be ruled out on the leading edge of the line. The time of focus for these
thunderstorms is 21Z tomorrow to 00Z Wednesday, and future forecasters will need to
monitor Tuesday very closely to see how apt it is for convection in the afternoon/evening.
J/kg for MUCAPE, 1891 J/kg for MLCAPE, and 40 knots for EFFSHR. However, the most
concerning part of the soundings was that there is no cap forecasted. These thunderstorms
look to be non-supercellular, which makes the biggest threat to be straight-line winds and
maybe some small hail if the updraft can grow large enough. However, a few tornadic
spin-ups cannot be ruled out on the leading edge of the line. The time of focus for these
thunderstorms is 21Z tomorrow to 00Z Wednesday, and future forecasters will need to
monitor Tuesday very closely to see how apt it is for convection in the afternoon/evening.
This low pressure system is forecasted to move across the IA-MN border and continue to
move towards the NE CONUS after all is said and done in Mid-Missouri. Winds will back
behind the front as expected, allowing for CAA into the area. Temperatures will be much
cooler on Wednesday thanks to northerly flow behind the low. As the cyclone deepens to
our east, winds will pick up in the Midwest, with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Models are suggesting
some lingering morning rain on the backside of this cyclone, but a deep dry layer exists at the
surface and in the mid-levels which would make it very hard for any precip to make it to the
ground. Flow from the cP air mass will dry us out on Wednesday and allow for some sun by
the afternoon.
move towards the NE CONUS after all is said and done in Mid-Missouri. Winds will back
behind the front as expected, allowing for CAA into the area. Temperatures will be much
cooler on Wednesday thanks to northerly flow behind the low. As the cyclone deepens to
our east, winds will pick up in the Midwest, with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Models are suggesting
some lingering morning rain on the backside of this cyclone, but a deep dry layer exists at the
surface and in the mid-levels which would make it very hard for any precip to make it to the
ground. Flow from the cP air mass will dry us out on Wednesday and allow for some sun by
the afternoon.
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