Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday: Becoming cloudy. High: 53

Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 42

 

 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with an increasing chance of rain. High: 47

Tuesday Night: Rain transitioning to freezing rain then to sleet then snow. Low: 19

 

Wednesday: Snow. High: 23

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:  

Are you ready for some winter conditions? Say goodbye to the sun for a while as clouds begin to move into the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Winds will switch to the southwest, and will bring in lots of moisture to fuel the storm coming Tuesday. A low pressure system will move it's way into the area as the rain begins Tuesday. The rain will then transition into freezing rain and sleet overnight; ultimately leading to a snowy morning Wednesday. Snow will be quite heavy at times, and will persist through the afternoon and evening hours into Thursday. Snow accumulation will total up through out the week with about 1-3" on Tuesday, 2-4" on Wednesday, and it is not slowing down leading into Wednesday night into Thursday, so be careful!

 - Baker

====================================================================

Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 1/31/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical discussion:  

For this forecasting period, NAM model run 12Z and the HRRR 12Z run were used. The problem of the day consists of the timing of the transition from rain to snow on Tuesday night going into Wednesday along with the accumulation amount of snow for the forecasting period. 

Winds this Monday morning are coming from the northwest at 65 knots at the 250mb level which is bringing calm weather for today with increasing cloud cover. Meridional flow is seen throughout the CONUS. Winds shift from the northwest to more westerly as Mid-Missouri is under a shortwave trough around 00Z Tuesday. Divergence at the 250mb level increases around 03Z Wednesday along with winds increasing from 70 knots to 130 knots by 00Z Thursday. 

As a long wave trough and low pressure system in the western CONUS pushes east, amples amount of energy will be pushed from the southwest as the winds shift from westerly to south westerly. This shift brings moisture which is a key ingredient needed for this system to produce winter precipitation for the CWA. At the 500mb level, vorticity increases by 09Z Wednesday and is consistent until the end of the forecasting period. Relative humidity increases at the 700mb starting 08Z Tuesday and remains at 100% all throughout the forecasting period. 

 At the surface level, winds switch coming from the southwest around 18Z Monday and becoming more westerly Tuesday around 12Z. The NAM shows the low pressure system pushing east into the CWA around 08Z as rain chances will increase. Rain is expected to start around 09Z Tuesday based on the NAM 12Z run sounding. Uncertainty is present for when exactly the rain to snow transition will occur and how much winter precipitation will accumulate. The sounding for 01Z Tuesday shows a transition from rain to snow, then 03Z Tuesday back to rain. Shortly before midnight, the transition from rain to freezing rain is likely to occur which then will turn into sleet at 07Z Wednesday. Snow is expected to start at 09Z Wednesday and continue all throughout the day Wednesday into the evening. Accumulation totals for Tuesday range from 1-3 inches of winter precipitation and 2-4 inches Wednesday.          

-Gromada