Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Currently Under Winter Weather Advisory until Midnight

Friday Night - Snow clearing out, but clouds will remain. Low:14-18

Saturday - Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy. High: 30-34.

Saturday Night -  Mostly cloudy. Chance for wintry precipitation. Low: 26-30.






Sunday -  Mostly cloudy, chance for wintry precipitation. High: 30-34.

Monday - Mostly cloudy. High: 26-30

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Discussion:
Winter weather will continue for much of the weekend with only small reprieves here and there. This afternoon's snow will end later this evening leaving behind it cloudy skies. The clouds will linger throughout much of the forecast period. Another round of winter weather will move in late Saturday night and persist through Sunday. Temperatures will remain fairly steady throughout the weekend remaining right at or just below freezing.

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Forecasters: Sumrall, and Hirsch

Issued: 4:17 p.m., February 15, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
We are in store for a very active weather pattern over the forecast period. Snow will linger throughout this evening due to an increase in atmospheric moisture. We see that moisture begin to dry out briefly in the mid and upper level, but the moisture will return Saturday afternoon. The mid-levels from Saturday through the rest of the weekend will remain relatively saturated, providing the moisture needed for our next wintry event. Saturday winds shift to out of the southwest and will provide some warm air advection helping to warm our temperatures slightly.
 Overnight Saturday and into Sunday is when we can expect the next round of winter weather. A low pressure system makes its way into Missouri early Sunday morning. Winds will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly, this will aid in some slight cold air advection, however this will not have a major impact on our temperatures. Models are in disagreement as to the type of precipitation we can expect and how long it will last. GFS has mid-Missouri right on the line between a wintry mix and snow. North of I70 receiving the snow while south could see some wintry mix. GFS also has the lifespan of the event ending Sunday afternoon. While the NAM is showing snow for central Missouri, and has the precipitation lasting into Monday morning, with wrap around precipitation from the low that moves through. The models due agree that we will likely receive another 2 inches of snow. At this time Monday looks to dry out with temperatures remaining similar to the rest of this weekend.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Currently Under Winter Weather Advisory until Midnight

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy, temperatures drop quickly Low: 20-24

Friday - Mostly cloudy with a chance for afternoon snow. High: 21-25.

 

Friday Night -  Snow clearing out, sky remaining cloudy Low: 13-17.

Saturday -  Mostly cloudy, chance for afternoon wintry precipitation. High: 30-34.

 

 Sunday - Slightly warmer and mostly sunny skies. High: 32-36

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Discussion:
Winter is not gone folks. Tonight will usher in extremely cold temperatures after a nice break earlier today of sunny skies and warmer temps. Clouds will remain consistent tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front passes over. Tomorrow morning brings us increasing clouds and snow throughout the day staying light and keeping conditions somewhat calm. Accumulation will stay around an inch to three inches in total starting around noon and ending later on in the night. Saturday brings us a slight break in the morning through afternoon but then a good chance for light snow again later on in the evening. Clouds remain overhead through Saturday night but clear out Sunday as sunny skies shine through and temps will get above freezing.  

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Forecasters: Bongard, Doll, Myers, and Hirsch

Issued: 4:04 p.m., February 14, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Temperatures are getting ready to take a turn overnight.  As a cold front passes over mid Missouri, temperatures will plummet to well below freezing with our overnight low reaching 22 degrees. This front isn't bringing in a lot of moisture with it so we expect to stay dry overnight and have a few upper level clouds build into the morning hours.  An upper level ridge will be following behind this front and will become extremely zonal overnight.  An upper level trough invading the CONUS over the Pacific Northwest will create an express highway in the upper air levels.  High winds at 250 mb will help systems for Friday and Saturday steam roll through the Midwest over the weekend. 

A winter weather advisor has been issued from 9 am to midnight for Friday for Boone County.  The morning moisture levels start out very dry. By late morning however, moisture begins to build in from the northwest with anticipation for wintry precip that we expect to see in the late afternoon.  Steady winds out of the west will help to keep our snow falling throughout the day and into late Friday night.  The zonal flow is the driving factor for the winter weather we will be seeing that developed more north and brought in this cold air mass that will settle over Missouri.  NAM has the atmosphere drying out earlier than the GFS, stating that snowfall will end around 10pm while the GFS has it continuing until around midnight.  We expect to see around an inch to three inches of snow over the course of the day tomorrow.

Saturday brings another chance for snow.  We will stay inconsistently moist on and off in the mid atmosphere.  This will keep our skies mostly cloudy throughout the day.  Ground level winds shift to be out of the southeast to southwest late Saturday which will help our temperatures rise slightly.  That trough that we anticipated early in the week will finally make it's way to Missouri as our upper level winds continue to stay extremely strong.  This trough is what's going to bring us that second chance of snow for Saturday night moving the low pressure system into mid Missouri.  As the trough moves out, we will dry out through the mid to upper level atmosphere.  Our temperatures will continue to slowly climb as we continually to have southerly flow.  Sunday will be sunny and slightly warmer than what we had seen previously this weekend.   Then we will switch back to colder weather as we see a northerly shift leading us into next week.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Clouds move in becoming partly cloudy. Low: 40-44.

Thursday - Windy, increasing cloud cover becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon. High: 54-58.

 
Thursday Night - Cloudy, temperatures drop quickly Low: 23-27.

Friday -  Mostly cloudy with a chance for afternoon snow showers. High: 21-25.

 

 
 Saturday - Mostly cloudy chance for afternoon wintry precipitation.  High: 30-34.

 

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Discussion: 
A nice mild day for weather here in mid-Missouri. Mild southerly winds helped our high temperatures reach into the lower 50's with pockets of sunshine. Overnight lows will not drop significantly remaining mild. Clouds will begin to move in this afternoon into evening becoming partly cloudy as moisture near the surface increases. Tomorrow early will be similar to today with above average temperatures and some periods of sun. However winds will increase overnight and conditions will be breezy throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts around 35-40 knots. Temperatures will fall quickly Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front will make its way into the area. Friday will be cold and there is a chance for light snow from Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. Accumulations are only expected to be around 1 inch but could impact the evening commute. Saturday afternoon we prepare for the next system to move through bringing a possibility of a wintry mix. 

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Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall and Hirsch

Issued: 2:35 p.m., February 13, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Warm temperatures Wednesday afternoon have a western CONUS ridge and a high pressure system over the Gulf Coast to thank for highs in the 50's during the afternoon. The northwestern flank of the high pressure is helping to strengthen southwesterly flow at 850 mb over the southern Plains into the Midwest. Thickness charts show textbook perfect celanoids developed over this region helping to bump temperatures up 20-30 degrees higher than yesterdays cold highs.

Overnight this evening temperatures will regulate back only into the 40's as warm air advection continues into the morning and mid day hours of Thursday. The forecast area will again warm up though change is quickly on the way. The ridge aloft out west will deamplify allowing for a large upper level trough to swing into the northern Rockies. This will create a high powered zonal flow aloft over the southern CONUS in the form of a 180-200 knot jet streak from California into the southern Plains. This jet will be the catalyst for a very active weather pattern over the end of the week. First up, a central Canadian trough will swing a shortwave down into the Plains dragging with it a cold front that will wipe out the warm air advection we have enjoyed. Passage of this cold front looks to take place between 20Z and 00Z Valentine's Day night. Some disagreement occurs with precipitation development as NAM allows for scattered showers over the region and east of Columbia while GFS keeps precipitation chances well east of central Missouri. A slight chance for rain is possible though unlikely Thursday night as behind the cold front a bitter cold northwest flow dries the area out very quickly.

Low's in the 20's will make warming temperatures difficult Friday as we set up for the next round of winter weather to impact the region. Large model divergence with this system occurs as the NAM keep influence from the previous days trough over the area in the form of low level northerly winds. This will sustain the dry layer inhibiting precipitation development. GFS on the other hand will swing low level flow around to the east and southeast allowing for some moisture from the northwest to interact with the atmosphere overhead eroding the dry layer over Columbia. This will allow for snow to develop and sublimate into the dry layer moistening up the profile by 18Z. Moisture models are modest so even know the second half of the Friday forecast will involve snowfall the accumulations look to be in the 1-3 inch range. At 48 hours out it is hard to decide out a likely outcome at this point though the upper level flow leads to a GFS outcome as keeping the eastern CONUS based trough's flow over the region seems unlikely at this time. We will definitely need to reevaluate this precipitation situation in future model runs.

Below freezing temperatures Friday night will coincide with snowfall that will end by mid morning Saturday over Columbia at the latest. A quick moving ridge will rip through the Plains allowing a short window of dry time for the forecast area from Saturday morning into late Saturday afternoon. After that, another quick moving system riding the vigorous zonal jet across the CONUS will impact the area with yet another chance for snowfall Saturday night into Sunday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Breezey, clearing skies overnight. Low: 20-24.

 
Wednesday - Windy, warming temperatures, mostly sunny. High: 52-56.

Wednesday Night - Partley cloudy. Low: 37-41.

Thursday -  Mostly cloudy. High: 52-56.

 


Friday -  Overcast with snow chances.  High: 27-31.

 

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Discussion: 
We had a windy day here in mid-Missouri as warm air is being funneled in from the southwest, bringing us milder temperatures. The gusty conditions will continue into tomorrow helping clouds move out of the area and funnel in warmer temperatures. The high for tomorrow will be in the mid- 50’s and sunshine will be widespread, so tomorrow will be the nicest day of the week to get outside and enjoy the fresh air. Thursday will also be very mild in temperature, however more moisture will be available in the atmosphere so cloud cover is to be expected, and we can’t rule out the possibility of a few sprinkles. But, this should not be enough rain to ruin any outdoor plans that you may have for Valentine’s Day on Thursday. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning we have a cold front that will push through the area, kicking down our temperatures, to around 30 for a high, and will bring moisture behind it. This will be our next good chance of seeing winter precipitation, likely in the form of snow.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown, and Hirsch

Issued: 4:35 a.m., February 11, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

After the drizzle and flurries that passed through the area this morning, drier air has entered the area giving us clear skies and some much needed sunshine for the next couple days. Tonight, winds will continue to blow around 15-20mph out of the northwest with clear skies. This will promote more surface cooling, bringing out temperatures down to the mid to low 20s.

With the lack of moisture and lift in the GFS, model soundings have us dry until tomorrow. Winds shift tomorrow from a westerly component to a southerly component, with a veering wind profile and promoting WAA. This is bringing us the pleasant and much needed above average temperatures. A mix of sun and clouds for Wednesday is expected with no chances of precipitation. Overnight on Wednesday look for clouds to persist.



Thursday will start out partly cloudy with increasing clouds throughout the day as a cold front approaches. We believe the frontal passage will occur Thursday night into Friday morning. Post FROPA there is a possibility of clearing skies but not for long. CAA will dominate not only Friday, but through the weekend as well. GFS soundings show the column begins to moisten up through the early morning on Friday. Right now there is a chance of snow late Friday afternoon with about 10mb/s of lift throughout the DGZ and a moist atmosphere up to about 320mb level. With the timing and totals we will differ to future forecast shifts.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Cloudy with rain. Flurries after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Tuesday - Rain changing over into light snow in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Windy. High: 34-38.

Tuesday Night - Windy during the evening. Clouds increasing after midnight. Low: 22-26.

Wednesday -  Mostly cloudy. Becoming windy in the afternoon. High: 50-54.

Thursday -  Clouds persist with light rain in the afternoon.  High: 54-58

 

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Discussion: 
After a fairly eventful Sunday, pecipitation will continue today. The good news is that we expect this to be all liquid and no ice. Temperatures will struggle to get much warmer than they are currently. The rain continues into tonight, possibly mixing with, then changing over to snow before ending by noon tomorrow. Little accumulation, if any, is expected. Clouds will clear quickly Tuesday afternoon and it will become quite windy. High temperatures tomorrow will be very near those reached today. Clouds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, amounting to mostly cloudy conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Some good news, though-it will also warm significantly, with highs in the low-50s. 

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Forecasters: Danaher, Brown, and Hirsch

Issued: 4:35 a.m., February 11, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Mid-Missouri will continue to see a similar pattern to what we have been seeing thus far this very active February. GFS 500 hPa vortiticy shows multiple mini shortwaves ejecting out of the Southwest U.S. as we saw last week. That, combined with the 850 hPa flow out of the southwest, has already advected plenty of moisture into Missouri. Light drizzle will pick up and turn to steady rain as both soundings and time heights indicate a completely saturated atmosphere from the sfc to the tropopause and ample lift building by 20 UTC Monday. Showers will die down back to drizzle by 03 UTC Tuesday as the atmosphere dries out at 700 hPa, but remains saturated below and to the sfc. Omega decreases as well overnight.

However, overnight Tuesday brings with it the concern for wintry precip as temperatures could drop just below freezing. Soundings show a backing profile of the winds overnight hinting at moderate CAA. If 2m temperatures are able to dip below the freezing mark, the potential for light flurries mixing in with drizzle lingers into Tuesday morning. With the already wet ground, Sanborn Field has 2-in soil temperatures above freezing, and an overnight low of only 30-34 F, no major accumulations or impacts are expected with this precip. The concern for overnight refreezing is also of little concern for the above mentioned reasons, however won't rule out the possibility for refreezing occuring on elevated surfaces or cars. Soundings from the 12Z NAM show light snow on Tuesday morning given the small gap below 700mb and a slight omega increase.

Precip clears out of Columbia by 15 UTC Tuesday with even some partial clearing occuring into the afternoon. We will get yet another short lived sight of the sun with BKN low clouds lingering. Despite the shot at sunshine, temperatures will not be moving much at all on Tuesday. Winds pick up 850 hPa winds in excess of 40-45 kts after 18 UTC. Clearer skies should allow for winds to mix down to the sfc. Soundings back this up as they show winds about 20-25 kts Tuesday afternoon at this time.

Skies remain partially clear into Tuesday night with winds dying down overnight. Calm winds and clearer skies will result in ample radiational cooling and temperatures will bottom out Wednesday morning near 20 degrees. Clouds move back in Wednesday afternoon and evidence of warm FROPA is present as sfc winds shift from the NW to the SW and eventually the S as the day progresses. Sfc temperatures will also see a large spike on Wednesday and could reach to the mid 50s. These clouds will continue to persist into Thursday. A chance of light precip is possible, but later shifts should look into this.
  

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Monday - Cloudy. Steady rain. High: 34-38.

Monday Night - Cloudy with rain. Some snow may mix in after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Tuesday - Light snow in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Windy. High: 34-38.

Tuesday Night - Windy during the evening. Clouds increasing after midnight. Low: 22-26.

 
Wednesday -  Mostly cloudy. Becoming windy in the afternoon. High: 50-54.

 

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Discussion: 
After a fairly eventful Sunday, pecipitation will continue today. The good news is that we expect this to be all liquid and no ice. Temperatures will struggle to get much warmer than they are currently. The rain continues into tonight, possibly mixing with, then changing over to snow before ending by noon tomorrow. Little accumulation, if any, is expected. Clouds will clear quickly Tuesday afternoon and it will become quite windy. High temperatures tomorrow will be very near those reached today. Clouds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, amounting to mostly cloudy conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Some good news, though-it will also warm significantly, with highs in the low-50s. 

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Forecasters: Travis, Ritter, and Hirsch

Issued: 10:02 a.m., February 11, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Mid-Missouri will continue to see a similar patter to what we have been seeing thus far this very active February. GFS 500hPa vortiticy shows multiple mini shortwaves ejectingout of the Southwest U.S. as we saw last week. That, combined with the 850 hPa flow out of the southwest, has already advected plenty of moisture into Missouri. Light drizzle will pick up and turn to steady rain as both soundings and time heights indicate a completely saturated atmosphere from the sfc to the tropopause and ample lift building by 20 UTC Monday. Showers will die down back to drizzles by 03 UTC Tuesday as the atmosphere dries out at 700 hPa, but remains saturated below and to the sfc. Omega decreases  as well overnight.

However, overnight Tuesday brings with it the concern for wintry precip as temperatures could drop just below freezing. Soundings show a backing profile of the winds overnight hinting at moderate CAA. If 2m temperatures are able to dip below the freezing mark, the potential for light flurries mixing in with drizzle lingers into Tuesday morning. With the already wet ground, Sanborn Field has 2-in soil temperatures above freezing, and an overnight low of only 30-34 F, no major accumulations or impacts are expected with this precip. The concern for overnight refreezing is also of little concern for the above mentioned reasons, however won't rule out the possibility for refreezing occuring on elevated surfaces or cars. Will defer to the afternoon shift to better narrow down potential for winter precip.

Precip clears out of Columbia by 15 UTC Tuesday with even some partial clearing occuring into the afternoon. We will get yet another short lived sight of the sun with BKN low clouds lingering. Despite the shot at sunshine, temperatures will not be moving much at all on Tuesday. Winds pick up 850 hPa winds in excess of 40-45 kts after 18 UTC. Clearer skies should allow for winds to mix down to the sfc. Soundings back this up as they show winds about 20-25 kts Tuesday afternoon at this time.

Skies remain partially clear into Tuesday night with winds dying down overnight. Calm winds and clearer skies will result in ample radiational cooling and temperatures will bottom out Wednesday morning near 20 degrees. Clouds move back in Wednesday afternoon and evidence of warm FROPA is present as sfc winds shift from the NW to the SW and eventually the S as the day progresses. Sfc temperatures will also see a large spike on Wednesday and could reach to the mid 50s.