Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night: A few showers possible after midnight. Low: 56

 

Friday: A few showers possible, otherwise mostly cloudy. High: 69

 

 

 

 

Friday Night: A slight chance of a rain shower. Low: 57

 

 

 
 

 

Saturday: Isolated thunderstorms. High:86

 

 

 

 

Saturday Night: A few showers possible overnight. Low:65

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

Clouds will be overhead for most of our Friday with a slight chance of a rain shower. High temperatures Friday afternoon will be a couple of degrees below average (avg. high 75), but temperatures will be on rise as we progress further into the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday should get into the upper 80s, so be sure to get out and enjoy the warmth!

-McCormack

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Forecasters: Easter, McCormack, Macko

Date Issued: 5/04/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The main focus of this forecast is the potential for incoming precipitation Thursday night, as well as the potential for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Due to significant model disagreement on temperatures, rain fall totals, and the location of tonight's system, a blend of the NAM and GFS was used for this forecast period. The NAM showed the cloud cover for Friday sticking around after 12Z resolving cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, the GFS is resolving more southerly winds and cloud cover dispersing in the afternoon, thus predicting temperatures in the mid 70's.

In the upper levels, the low-pressure system over the Great Lakes continues to push off to the east allowing for ridging to move in from the west. A surface low over Kansas and Colorado will be funneling some upper level divergence into southern MO Thursday night which will influence showers. Upper-level flow will remain relatively zonal through the remainder of the forecast period

Vorticity will be in place for Thursday night and Friday morning. The vorticity is associated with two shortwaves that will provide forcing for any precipitation that might fall during that time period. Moisture does not infiltrate the region until Friday 00Z. At this time, the majority of the moisture at 700mb will be confined to southern MO, 850mb moisture does not align with moisture aloft until Friday at 06Z. At this time we may experience a brief shower or sprinkle but the moisture at 700mb is sparse, any rainfall that occurs will need to overcome the dry air. Accumulation totals will be on the lighter end and remain under 0.05 inches.  

Saturday afternoon thunderstorm development is looking conditional for us here in mid-Missouri. For Saturday at 21Z GFS model soundings show surface CAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Despite ample CAPE values and the presence of the LLJ, the region has significant capping in place as well as very little moisture to support the formation of thunderstorms. There is still much uncertainty with this event as NAM soundings show even less moisture entering the area. GFS soundings show a surface temperature in the upper 80s, while the NAM has a much cooler surface temperature in the mid 70s.Conditions could change quickly if the LLJ advects more moisture into the region and temperatures grow warm enough to break the cap. If that occurs we could see the development of a few isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As of right now no precipitation is expected for Saturday.

-Easter

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Thursday Night: Overcast. Rain beginning after midnight. Low: 56

 

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light rain throughout the day. High:65

 

 

 
 

 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with rain stop. Low: 57

 

 

 

 

Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorm development. High: 83

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

After the long period of continuous dry and sunny days, some much needed precipitation is expected to make its way to Columbia. Light rainfall will occur for much of Friday. Additionally, Saturday afternoon has a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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Forecasters: Hefner, Samson, Macko

Date Issued: 5/04/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The focus of the forecasting period was on incoming precipitation expected Thursday night, as well as the potential for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. The GFS was selected as the primary model for this forecast period as it had better handling of initial moisture within the upper levels. It is important to note the NAM and GFS were under large model disagreement specially when handling the potential thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon. Future forecasters should be aware of the sizable uncertainty within the models and should proceed with careful analysis of multiple model outputs.

In the upper levels, the Omega blocking pattern which has dominated our recent weather has begun to release its grip due to the decaying low-pressure system over the East Coast. We are currently under the effects of an upper-level ridge centered over the Central Plains, however we will be quickly transitioning to meridional flow.

Our region will lack moisture until Friday 00Z. At this time, the low-level jet will begin to transport an abundance of moisture both in the 700 and 850mb levels into mid-Missouri. Additionally, measurable vorticity will be present for Thursday night and Friday morning providing the required forcing for precipitation. Much needed rainfall is expected around Friday at 06Z and will persist for much of the day Friday. Accumulation totals will be on the lighter end and remain under 0.10 inches.  

Saturday afternoon poses the threat of thunderstorm development occurring over mid-Missouri. For Saturday at 21Z GFS model soundings output surface CAPE values over 3000 J/kg, -9 Lifted Index, directional wind shear, non-existent CINH, and a total totals of 52. Currently there is still much uncertainty with this event as is shown in NAM soundings with far less bullish thunderstorm indices. The main source of the uncertainty is due to determining the amount of diurnal heating that will occur Saturday. GFS soundings output a surface temperature in the high 80s, while the NAM outputs a much cooler surface temperature in the mid 70s. 

Both models agree that timing for thunderstorm development will be a short window of opportunity around Saturday 21Z. Additionally, there is strong consensus between the models outputting precipitation totals over 0.5 inches of rainfall for this event. 

-Hefner

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 
 

 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Thursday Night: Overcast. Rain beginning around midnight. Low: 56

 

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light rain throughout the day. High:65

 

 

 
 

 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy as rain continues to lessen. Low: 57

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

A rainy Stop Day is in store for Mizzou as rain begins Thursday night, lasting into Friday. Rain will lighten throughout the day on Friday with brief periods of sunshine to end the semester.

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Chirpich and Cook

Date Issued: 5/03/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 12Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast as its forecast upper-level pattern for Wednesday closely matched satellite imagery and current upper-level water vapor flow patterns. The problem of the day for this forecast period is the rain Thursday night into Friday.

Upper-level maps show an omega block pattern with a low-pressure system over the Great Lakes region and a high-pressure system on its way into mid-Missouri. This high-pressure system will allow for an influx of moisture to be brought into the area due to return flow. As the high-pressure system moves into Missouri, a ridge will build in, putting the region in a meridional pattern. On Thursday at 15Z, divergence begins to pop up at 250MB. The highest divergence values will be seen on Friday from 03Z to 12Z, which is when the heaviest rain is expected. Vort maxes are seen Friday from 06Z to 21Z, provided the needed forcing for continuous rain throughout the day on Friday.

Cloud cover is expected to return on Thursday afternoon, as moisture builds in around 18Z at 700MB and doesn't leave the area until Friday at 21Z. Soundings support this increase in cloud cover and show that rain is expected to begin Thursday around midnight. Early Friday morning at 09Z, the column is fully saturated with increased omega in the upper-levels and plenty of downward motion at the surface. Due to the large amount of downward motion and the lack of severe weather indices, this system is expected to be rain only, no thunderstorms. The rain will be heaviest Thursday night and will lighten during the day on Friday. However, the light rain is expected to continue all day on Friday, allowing Missouri to pick up over 1" of rain for the entire passage of the system. The column will continue to desaturate into Saturday morning, leaving the weekend to start with a few isolated showers.

-Chirpich

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70

 
 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, clouds begin to build in during the afternoon. High: 75

 

 

Thursday Night: Rain throughout the night. Low: 56.

 

 

 

 

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 67

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

Missouri will continue to have pleasant weather on Wednesday with sunshine and a high in the low 70s. Thursday, however, clouds begin to move into mid-Missouri ahead of the rain coming overnight Thursday. Light rain will begin Thursday evening before ramping up in the early morning hours of Friday. Increased forcing in the mid-levels will produce the heaviest rain between 3:00-7:00AM CST. The rain will then slow cease midday Friday.

-Ritsema

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran

Date Issued: 5/03/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast was based on the outputs of the GFS. The NAM was not used due to the inaccuracy of Tuesday night temperatures. The 00z and 06z NAM was off by 10 degrees on the low temperatures, whereas the GFS was within three degrees. 

Missouri continues to be influenced by the low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow persists throughout Wednesday, before a ridge moves into the area. Winds will then shift to a westerly component for the rest of the forecast period. Around Friday 03z, a shortwave propagates into Missouri, bringing with it divergence aloft, and thus, convergence at the surface. This shortwave is more prominent at the mid-level where a low can be seen passing over north-central Missouri. Circulation exists with this low over mid-Missouri and vorticity max can be seen Friday 09z-18z. 

The 700 mb level portrays a closed circulation over north central Missouri on Friday. This level becomes saturated around 18z on Thursday and remains saturated until Friday 21z. To the southeast, a boundary exists in which winds shift to the west. Along this boundary, elevated omega values will influence heavier precipitation. 

Lower, at 850 mb, the low pressure system is still present in north central Missouri. It induces a low-level jet bringing in a warm moist airmass to the central Plains and Mississippi Valley. This can be seen with the elongated moisture transport vectors in a majority of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and sourthern Missouri. This level reaches saturation on Friday at 03z and that moisture sticks around the whole day. Warm air advection allows for this moisture and warmer air to rise and aid in the production of precipitation that is expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning. 

The surface presents a slightly different story where the low tracks into southern Missouri, lagging behind the mid-levels. Saturation at this level occurs at 03z on Friday. It is about at this time where the precipitation will begin to ramp up, max out at 12z Friday, and cease Friday afternoon. PWAT values exceed 1.25 inches starting at 03z Friday ending Saturaday 00z. Accumulation being forecasted is around .5 inches. 

-Ritsema
 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

   Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 
 

   Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70

   Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45


 

 

    Thursday: AM Sun. PM Clouds. High: 70

 

 

    Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 55

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

Sunny and dry conditions will continue until Thursday evening. Winds will be a lot calmer Wednesday and Thursday resulting in very nice days with plenty of sunshine. The next weather system will move in Thursday evening that should bring much needed and widespread rain to the area Thursday night and into Friday morning. Enjoy the nice spring weather!

- Peine

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Smitty

Date Issued: 05/02/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

  

    The 18Z GFS model was utilized for this forecast due to a better handling on moisture transport Thursday night into Friday morning. The primary focus for this forecast period is the chance for some much needed rain Thursday evening into Friday.   

    At 250 mb, an upper-level low is currently over the Great Lakes region, keeping us under northwesterly flow with breezy conditions due to the tight pressure gradient. As we lose daytime mixing, winds will begin to lighten up overnight tonight to around 5-10 mph. High pressure will begin to move into the region and keep sky conditions clear, so this will result in efficient radiational cooling, causing low temperatures to be 10 degrees below average tonight (avg. low 51).

    On Wednesday, high pressure will be overhead, keeping winds light out of the northwest at 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be able to climb into the low 70s with sunny conditions forecasted throughout the day. Wednesday night, the aforementioned high pressure will slide towards the Tennessee River Valley and allow for more of a southerly component with our winds. With light winds at the surface and mostly clear conditions, overnight lows should dip down into the mid- 40s.  

    For Thursday, high pressure will continue to move to the southeast and help draw cloud cover northward into our region. Even with the increasing cloud cover, temperatures should be near average (avg. high 72) Thursday afternoon due to southerly winds at 10-15 mph. A surface low will begin to develop across the central High Plains late Thursday afternoon and help bring some much needed rainfall to our area starting Thursday evening. With high pressure over the southeast CONUS, moisture will be advected into the region. However, the low-level jet will be rather weak across southwest Missouri, so we will not be dealing with any flooding concerns in central Missouri. Rain will continue to fall throughout the night on Thursday into Friday morning, yet there is low confidence in how much rain will fall Thursday night. Confidence is higher for heavier rain across southern Missouri as a weak stationary front will be draped across the region. As of now, central Missouri should see rainfall totals between 0.5”-0.75”, but this could change due to the spread in the models. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s due to plenty of cloud cover and rain that is forecasted.  

    Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the development of the low pressure system and the increasing confidence in warmer than average temperatures for the weekend. We hope that you enjoyed our forecasts this semester! Signing off for the last time…

-McCormack, Peine, Smitty

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

 

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 65

 
 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70


 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 45

 

 

Thursday: Chance of rain in the afternoon. High: 70

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:

Sunny and breezy conditions will persist for the next two days with moderating temperatures in the 60s to near 70. You'll notice a cloudy sky for Thursday ahead of the next chance for rain. While the early part of the day looks to be dry, the second half looks to have increasing chances of rain especially in the late afternoon. So be sure to bring an umbrella for Thursday afternoon as rain chances can't be ruled out.

- Simmons

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 05/02/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A windy and sunny couple of days have been the main story for Central MO due to an omega blocking pattern over the CONUS. This blocking pattern will begin to break down later this week ahead of our next chance for rain. Both of the models were utilized for this forecast period due to their agreement on upper-level ridging in place that extends down to the surface.

Aloft, a strong low pressure system has been circulating over the Great Lakes Region as well as another low off the West Coast. These two troughs over the Eastern Seaboard and West Coast have allowed for upper-level ridging to build in to the Central CONUS. This omega blocking pattern will allow for sunny and dry conditions over the next couple of days. A strong pressure gradient due to the attendant surface low over the Great Lakes will allow for strong northwesterly winds to persist today although winds won't be as strong as they were Monday. A clearing sky tonight will help provide sufficient radiational cooling which will keep temperatures near 40 tonight and some areas may dip into the 30s. 

The next chance for rain will arrive for Thursday as the ridge will start to deamlify. Increased moisture will begin to move in around 18Z Thursday ahead of a strengthening LLJ. Despite a switch to southerly winds, Thursday's high only looks to reach about 70 due to cloud cover and the potential for rain. Adequate forcing won't be apparent till the afternoon which is when rain chances will increase heading into Thursday afternoon. Rainfall totals look to be within a T-0.05" as most of the dynamics won't come together until Thursday overnight. 

This is when the next forecast group should monitor how much rain will be expected and if it will still be raining for everyone's favorite day at Mizzou: Stop Day.

Signing off for the last time,

-Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 40

Tuesday: Sunny, windy with wind gusts 35-40 mph. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40 

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy in the morning. Gusts 25-30 mph. High: 67

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: As we power through the final week of classes, the weather can be one thing you don't have to worry about. Temperatures will remain consistent reaching into the upper 60's and lows in the 40's. The only defining weather feature for this week is wind. Windy conditions will persist through Wednesday morning so maybe hold off on trying out that new hairdo!

-Russell

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Forecasters:

Date Issued: 05/May/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Wind is the main story this week as a large long wave trough is parked off over portions of the Great Lakes bringing us repetitive temperatures and persistent winds out of the NW. Both the GFS and NAM models were taken into consideration when making this discussion as they both had a good handle of surface winds, and our observed conditions. 

A large high pressure developing over southern Greenland is serving as a block for the upper level pattern across the entirety of the Northern hemisphere. Thus, two regions of low pressure are locked in place across CONUS with one across the NE near the Great Lakes and one parked on the coast of California. This is created a unique pattern often referred to as the Omega blocking pattern due to it appearing as as the Greek letter Omega. 

Tonight through Tuesday, the trough parked to our east will have a gradual eastward shift placing us in a more stout NW flow with the developing ridge across the west continuing to influence the region. Due to the depth of the low across the Great lakes causing a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Central United states, surface winds will remain gusty with widespread gusts upwards of 40 mph possible. Due to the size of the LW trough to the NE, there will be several shortwaves that rotate around the outer circulation, however, the lack of moisture in the mid and low levels meaning nothing in the way of precipitation is expected. At most, a small wind shift to a more northerly direction is possible which will prevent us from getting much warmer than Monday. As we move into the night, we start to see some more areas of upper-level divergence as the ridging that is building off to the west begins to move more into the region. This may promote some upper-level clouds but precipitation is no expected thanks to continued dry air in the low and mid levels.

 

Wednesday into Wednesday Night will feature a very similar situation. We will see a slight movement in the overall pattern to the east but keeping us in the NW flow. We will luckily be getting a break from the gusty conditions, primarily as we go into Wednesday afternoon thanks to the weakening of the low pressure across the NE and the broadening of the pressure gradient across the area. That being said, some breezy conditions are possible but gusts should remain under 30 mph. Temperatures will be warmer when compared to Tuesday, that is thanks to the decrease in NW winds but also as the ridging move further into the state. 

Future forecaster to note the strengthening of the upper-level jet stream as the ridging continued to push into the area. Current modeling is picking up on a weak SW propagating with the Jet, this brings the potential for some much needed rainfall across the area. Due to the overall stagnant pattern, there is some potential this disturbance will produce heavy rainfall and is something that should be closely monitored.

Signing off for the final time

-Russell, Shaw