Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Partly Cloudy. High: 54-58.

Monday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 32-36.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 60-64.

Tuesday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 40-44.

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 64-68. 

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Discussion:

Tranquil weather is in store for mid-Missouri over the next few days. As high pressure moves over the Midwest, so too should seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies. A switch to southerly winds overnight tonight will mean each day during the forecast period will be noticeably warmer than the previous day. Skies will become cloudy Tuesday night and remain that way Wednesday as the next system approaches.

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Forecasters: Travis, RItter, and Hirsch

Issued: 10:13 a.m., 1 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

WPC Model diagnostics observe excellent agreement between all of the models and recommended a general model blend. Went primarily with GFS guidance for the forecast period due to its coverage of the entire period. 

After a active and wet last week, the weather quiets down. The main focus of this period is narrowing down the sky conditions from day to day and the strength of the incoming WAA. These two factors will in turn affect our high and low temperatures.

The cold air that the region experienced with the exit of this weekend's system will not persist past today. GFS 850 hPa temperates show the 0 celcius isotherm enveloping Missouri and Arkansas. 850 hPa winds show a quick shift from ENE to the SW. Southwesterly winds and ensuing WAA will be responsible for the warming trend this week. 500 hPa hemispheric flow remains amplified with a Rossby wave number of about 4. A LW trof sits off to the north and east extending from Canada into the Northeastern CONUS. A shortwave trof coming off of the Rocky mountains will pass to the south of Missouri Monday evening into Monday night. With the exit of the shortwave, a ribbon of circulation will extend down from the parent trof placing a vort max over mid-Missouri Tuesday Morning. While GFS 700 hPa RH and omega show a brief shot of moisture and lift, GFS Skew-T's show a lack of moisture throughout the column. Rain is not expected with this incoming system. When the shortwave over Arkansas-Louisiana border exits the region Tueday evening, it will be replaced by a surface anticyclone. This will put Missouri further into southwesterly flow at the surface. SLP and thickness maps show a solenoidal pattern over TX, OK, and MO suggesting WAA. 

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, Skew-T's show a rapidly moistening column, showing itself in the form of mid level cloudiness. A thick dry layer will remain below 850 hPa reaching to the surface. Overcast skies will remain into Wednesday with the approach of the next system. This system currently sits off of the west coast and and will make its way onshore in northern CA by Tuesday evening. This system will not impact Missouri this forecast and therefore will defer to future shifts to analyze the precip chances later in the week.