Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 30-34.

Tuesday- Mostly Sunny. High: 58-62.

Tuesday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 40-44.

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 64-68. 

 

Thursday - Cloudy. High: 58-62. 

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Discussion:

As high pressure moves over the Midwest, so too should seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies. A switch to southerly winds overnight tonight will mean each day during the forecast period will be noticeably warmer than the previous day. Skies will become cloudy Tuesday night and remain that way Wednesday as the next system approaches. Expect rain to start early Thursday morning and will continue throughout the day.

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Forecasters: Danaher, and Hirsch

Issued: 5;00 p.m., 1 April 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The WPC went with a general model blend with above average confidence. Throughout the week, the European and GFS models have an agreement. By Wednesday, GFS and European will speed up while the NAM slows down. For this forecast period, the GFS was chosen.

The main focus of this period is clouds appearing over the next couple of days with a possible thunderstorm event on Thursday.These two factors will in turn affect our high and low temperatures.

Monday night shows the Jet South of Missouri will continue to move toward the East coast. Connected to this jet is another small jet off towards the West coast and will enter Missouri early Tuesday morning. Throughout Tuesday morning, a small amount of vorticity will spread across between 20-30mb/s. This occurs because Missouri has entered the exit region of the Jet. It also implies that there is divergence aloft while convergence is below. Due to little moisture at all pressure levels nothing will happen after looking at the GFS soundings from Tuesday morning into Tuesday night. The jet streaks will be out of the Midwest and moisture entering by Wednesday. GFS soundings shows A Westerly wind switching to SW as a new trough begins to move through the Midwest with moisture entering early Wednesday morning. Clouds will appear Wednesday around the afternoon as backing occurs. The amount of moisture present this time is sufficient for rain to develop around 3am Thursday morning. This is due to the vorticity max over the middle of Missouri. The rain is expected to be between 1/2 - 1 inch. The possibility of Thunderstorms on Thursday is small due to CAPE values being close to 200 J/kg according to the GEFS. Future forecast periods should look into this as we end this one.