Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night -Mostly Clear Skies. Lows: 27-31 degrees.

Friday - Clear. High: 56-60 degrees.

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34 degrees.

Saturday -Clear. High: 50-54 degrees.

Sunday -Clear. High: 54-57 degrees.

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Discussion: 

Due to frontal passage, Columbia Mo is expecting calm weather for the next few days. While temperatures will remain low, we will see a bit of warming on Friday with a high temperature between 56-60 degrees. As we move into the weekend hours there will be a bit of cold air moving into the area with the low falling back into the low 30s on Sunday.

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Forecasters: Owens, Travis
Issued:  3:00 pm; October 31,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

High pressure will dominate the central Missouri region for the weekend. While there are residual clouds behind the front, these will clear out over Thursday evening to Friday morning. This is due to DAA behind the front. In addition to this there will be CAA behind the front, causing temperatures to be fairly low in the evening hours.  

On Friday winds will shift to more of an westerly direction, as the MSWT moves downstream of the area of responsibility, as shown on the 500mb/700mb SREF/HREF. With this temperature will increase. However, due to the fact that Central Missouri is still fairly dry and SREF Omega <-3 values are non-existent, there will be clear skies.

On Saturday and Sunday the 500mb/700mb will move down steam of the region. With this, there will be a wind shift to the north west, bringing a bit of CAA, however winds in the low levels continue to remain from the west during Sunday. As such we will continue to see normal diurnal patterns, causing temperatures to decrease into the 30s overnight.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  Thursday - Morning Clouds, Afternoon Clearing. High: 36-40

 

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 25-29

 

Friday - Sunny and warmer. High: 51-55

 

  

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 37-41

 
Saturday - Mostly Clear and Cooler. High: 40-44

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Discussion: 
Temperatures today will be unseasonably cold as our rain/snow maker departs the Midwest. Morning cloud coverage will break out by mid day in central Missouri with clearing through the afternoon to evening hours. Thursday Night into Friday morning temperatures will drop into the mid 20's. Friday, skies will remain clear and winds will switch from the northwest to a more westerly direction, leading to a warming trend.  Saturday, will be mostly sunny with another cool down as winds shift back to the northwest and become gusty.

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Forecasters: Gallahan, Pauley, Munley, Steward
Issued:  10:00 am; October 31,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

WPC prefers a non-NAM blend, we'll be using the GFS model along with SREF plumes for temperature forecasting.

Current conditions for this morning are overcast skies with temperatures in the upper 20s. These temperatures will rebound today but not by much as the gusty northwesterly flow ushers in the CAA. Overcast skies will eventually break up around 12pm today with subsidence working in behind the departed front as seen in the GFS 00Z forecast soundings. Clouds will continue to clear out this afternoon through this evening. Frigid temperatures are expected with radiational cooling this evening into tonight along with the CAA ushered in by the gusty northwesterly winds, so bundle up the goblins and ghouls.  Temperatures will rebound Friday as the trough moves off to the northeast, giving us zonal flow. Along with this, we will start to get veering winds at the surface indicating WAA. High temperatures will be nearly 15 degrees warmer than today. Clear skies Friday will also aid in our warming temperatures with radiational heating. Friday night a dry shortwave will turn our winds back out of the northwest, once again bringing in CAA with backing winds aloft, sticking with us through Saturday. This CAA will drop our high temperatures 10-12 degrees cooler than Friday. Skies will remain sunny on Saturday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 Wednesday Night - Rain changing to Snow.  Cloudy. Low: 28-32

  

Thursday - AM Snow. Cloudy, with skies clearing after the snow. High: 37-41
 

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 25-29

 

Friday - Sunny and warmer. High: 51-55

 

 

Saturday - Sunny. High: 42-46

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Discussion: 
Wednesday night, rain will change over to snow with a low from the high 20s to low 30s. Snow will taper off early Thursday morning with skies clearing in the afternoon, high in the upper 30s. Thursday night will be clear and will cause colder temperatures, in the mid to high 20s. Friday will be sunny and warmer due to winds out of the south, high in the low to mid 50s. Saturday will be slightly cooler with sunny skies, high in the mid 40s.

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Forecasters: Heaven, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00 pm; October 30,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

WPC prefers the GFS model, so we used that along with SREF plumes for temperature forecasting.

Analysis of the nonogram shows that today's precipitation should have been freezing rain. While we did see rain, warm surface and soil temperatures prevented this from occurring. Partial thicknesses at the 1000-850 and the 850-700 millibar levels show that rain will transition to snow overnight, mainly after midnight. Snow should taper off early Thursday morning, and model soundings show a widening between temperature and dew point in the column, indicating clearing skies that should remain for the rest of the week. Clear skies Thursday night will cause temperatures to dip to their lowest point this week. However, a surface low located over the Southern Plains will bring WAA to the area on Friday. This, combined with sunny skies will cause temperatures to rise significantly. Friday night, cold frontal passage will begin over the area, causing temperatures to drop, but sunny skies during the day will help mitigate the drop in temperature. No precipitation is expected during the cold frontal passage.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
 

Tuesday Night - Rain showers. Mixed precip late. Low: 29-33

 

   

 Wednesday - Rain showers. High: 33-37
 

 

 Wednesday Night - Rain, changing to mixed precip late. 

Low: 28-32

 

 

 

 

Thursday - AM snow. Mostly cloudy. High: 32-36

 

  

 

 

Friday - Partly cloudy and warmer. High: 44-48

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Discussion: 
Tuesday night we will see rain showers with mixed precip later in the night hours with lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Wednesday will see rain showers with highs in the mid to upper 30's, the rain will continue into the night hours with mixed precip, lows in the upper 20's to low 30's. Thursday morning will see snow with clouds starting to clear late in the day, highs in the mid to upper 30's. Friday will be partly cloudy and temperatures will start warming up, with highs in the mid 40's.

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Forecasters: Lujan, Savoy, Vanderpool, Heaven, Munley
Issued:  5:00 pm; October 29,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

The WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion advocates to use ECENS mean with ECMWF/UKMET/CMC blend. However, the models are not handling the situation in our area very well. Previous model runs indicated that the high temperature this afternoon would be in the mid 40's and we did not get there. Currently we are at 37 in Columbia. This would indicate that there is a significant spread in temperature predictions among models, and that they do not have a good handle on the unfolding situation. With the observed temperatures falling well below the predicted values, our forecast shift has decided to go mostly with GFS and short-range models (HRRR and RAP), as well as guidance from the SREF. However, we will keep in mind the fact that actual temperatures will be slightly cooler than what models indicate. 

Tonight temperatures will be near freezing with with saturation from the sfc to 500mb. We may see liquid precipitation transitioning to mixed precipitation as the night wears on. Short-range models show Columbia right on the edge between rain and a sleet/snow mixture between 06-09z Wednesday, with soundings indicating a temperature profile that could go any way. Temperature changes of just 1 degree will make the difference between rain and a wintry mix. Therefore, have included mention of mixed precipitation later tonight, but this is not certain. 

Tomorrow, temperatures may manage to make it into the mid 30's. Rain will persist through the morning with a break possible in the afternoon. Tomorrow night low temperatures will range in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Rain in the evening will transition into mixed precipitation overnight. Thermal profiles will briefly support a mixture of sleet and freezing rain as precip transitions to snow. This window of mixed precipitation should only last an hour or two before the column goes entirely below freezing and we start to see snow. Only concern here is a lack of moisture in the DGZ, which could lead to inefficient snow production and possible freezing drizzle mixed in. 

Thursday, snow looks to continue until mid day. Model soundings from both the GFS and NAM show a saturated column through 18z, and possibly as far as 21z. Therefore, we will at least see clouds throughout most of the day Thursday in addition to the morning/mid-day snow. Temperatures look to max out in the lower to mid 30's by afternoon - much, much colder than seasonal averages. 

Friday temperatures may be in the mid to upper 40's. GFS and NAM soundings show mostly clear skies with weak lower-level WAA. Therefore, at least a seasonally cool Friday looks to be in store.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday - Cloudy  High: 42-46

 Tuesday Night - Rain showers Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Rain High: 36-40

 

Wednesday Night - Mixed precip. Low: 28-32

 

Thursday - AM mixed precip. PM decreasing clouds High: 34-38

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Discussion: 
Temperatures will remain below seasonal values today as we will also have cloud cover throughout the day. The skies will remain cloudy into the evening hours and into overnight as we will have rain move into the area from the southwest. The rain will continue into Wednesday as the temperatures will also continue to remain below seasonal values. Wednesday night looks interesting however because we will continue to get rain, but the temperatures will continue to drop throughout the night. This drop in temperatures overnight will give us the possibility of mixed precipitation. A majority of the mixed precipitation will be freezing drizzle, however there is a potential to see some snowflakes on the backside of this system. The skies will begin to clear out into Thursday afternoon with our temperatures remaining below seasonal values.

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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00 am; October 29,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

This morning the WPC recommends a general model blend for this forecast period so we'll utilize both the GFS nd NAM.  The question of the day is how much rain will we see in the coming days and is there the possibility of seeing any mixed precipitation or even snow.

Overcast skies this morning and 36 degrees with light winds out of the east/northeast. 

Currently the area is stuck between two cold fronts as well, a cold front to our southeast and a cold from to our northwest.  High pressure is located over central Kansas this morning, this high will not make it to us or really effect us here in Mid-Missouri.  An open wave low pressure system is currently over southern New Mexico and will be influencing weather in Mid-Missouri is the coming days.  Warm air advection is really dominant in all levels except between the surface to about 900mb.  Forecast soundings indicate low level cloud cover all day Tuesday, a possibility of a peak of sunshine is possible but unlikely.  Rain showers overnight tonight are expected and persist really through the morning hours on Wednesday.  Mid level forcing is dominant through Wednesday but moisture does decrease during the afternoon hours, so a break in the cold and miserable rain is expected Wednesday afternoon but is brief.  The previously mentioned low pressure system in New Mexico does move north and east during the day Wednesday into portions of southern Arkansas. 

The upper level low is expected to pass the area to the east of the state but do still feel the affects here in the forecast area.  Forecast soundings do initially start the area with a cold rain Wednesday in the early late afternoon hours.  As the sun begins to set and temperatures begin to cool down forecast soundings to hint at the potential for freezing drizzle to even a freezing rain is possible as temperatures aloft at 850mb are expected to be just above freezing but surface temperatures are anticipated to be at or just below freezing at this time with a saturated column from the surface to 820mb.  Ground temperatures are currently at 46 degrees and with that being said roadways aren't a concern for any freezing precipitation to stick but elevated surfaces and grassy surfaces could see minor accumulation.  As the upper level low passes to the east overnight Wednesday and temperatures continue to drop, the potential to see snow but is doubtful at this time for the forecast area though possible as the lack of moisture seems to be a potential issue, but again accumulations will be minor, grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces only.  Thursday as the system gets out here, clouds are anticipated to break up and some clearing skies is expected towards Thursday afternoon but cool and below average temperatures continue for the area as CAA dominates once the system passes 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night - Rain, otherwise cloudy. Low: 34-38

Tuesday - Cloudy. High: 44-48

Tuesday Night - Rain. Cloudy. Low: 38-42  

Wednesday - Rain. Cloudy. High: 36-40

Thursday - Cloudy in the morning, with clouds clearing out. High: 38-42

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Discussion: 
We will start to see an increase in cloudiness and rain chances as the night progresses. Tuesday, the clouds will remain in the area with a high in the upper 40's. Overnight Tuesday, we will continue to see intermittent rain continuing into Wednesday. We will see cloudy skies later in the evening with a high in the upper 30's and the clouds clearing out as we head into Thursday with a high in the lower 40's.

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Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00 pm; October 28,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

This forecast primarily utilized the 12Z GFS, however the 12Z NAM was utilized as well. The WPC indicates poor resolution of the trough over the central CONUS. Given the analysis, there is verified differences between the GFS and NAM as the location of the 500 hPa low center differs significantly on each run.

Soundings indicate that cloud cover will persist overnight and into tomorrow. Rain is also expected starting at 03Z as deep saturation occurs up to around 600mb. This rainfall is not expected to be convective as the CAPE and Omega values are quite low.

Clouds are expected to remain in the area all day as multiple levels are saturated. Rain is expected to begin again around 09Z. Again, there is no convection expected with this rainfall. The GFS is suggesting sleet overnight Tuesday, however the GFS is, unsurprisingly, running cold. The NAM and SHREF also have significantly warmer temperatures and there is no indication of winter precipitation Tuesday night.

Wednesday, we will see Columbia on the northwest to west side of the surface low. Our position relative to the low will set the area up for rain. 700mb RH and Omega values are well overlaid, indicating precipitation.Future shifts will need to be aware of winter precipitation potential Wednesday night.

Soundings indicate that clouds will remain in the area during the morning hours, however will be clearing out as the day progresses.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday  - Overcast. High: 46-50

Monday Night - Rain, otherwise cloudy. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Partly sunny. High: 44-48

Tuesday Night - Rain. Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Rain. Cloudy. High: 44-48

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Discussion: 
We are seeing a drastic change in our weather from yesterday into today. A cold front passed through late last night bringing cloud cover and cold temperatures. From now until Wednesday, we are expecting an increase in activity associated with a low pressure system. This will bring a few rounds of precipitation in our forecast period. Later tonight we will see rain and more overcast conditions. Tuesday some of the clouds will clear up and we will have partly sunny sky conditions. However, clouds will return Tuesday night as well as rain that will persist through Wednesday.

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Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 am; October 28,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
About 03Z today a slow moving cold front passed over Columbia MO. This allowed for cool air to move in dropping temperatures about 10 degrees Fahrenheit overnight as overcast cloud cover set in. 

Cloud cover will persist throughout the day. Soundings suggest low level moisture between 850-900mb indicating a stratus deck. Beginning around 03Z tomorrow, saturation occurs up to around 600mb. Omega values are weak (<-10mb/s) and CAPE and CIN values are practically nonexistent. Therefore the threat of convection is low. However, we do expect to see rain from 03Z to 09Z. The persistent cloud cover suggests a small variation between the high and low temperatures in our forecast period.

The effects of the cold front begin to wear off during Tuesday. However, to the west of the forecast area, there is a cut-off low pressure system forming in a trough over the Rocky Mountains. Vorticity at 500mb suggests cyclogenesis over Colorado and Utah. This low will make its way towards Columbia MO and FROPA is predicted for Wednesday. 

Expect a break in the precipitation from 09Z Tuesday until around 00Z on Wednesday. This rain event also suggests little to no convection. However, Omega is maximized at 700mb which will give enough lift for rain. While temperatures are within 5 degrees Celsius of the freezing point, the 540 line remains to our Northwest for this forecast period. The GFS suggests this line will move South of Columbia on Thursday. Future forecasters should monitor its progression and the possibility of the first, albeit light, snowfall of the season.